引汉济渭工程初期调水风险特征研究

Characteristics of initial water diversion risk in Hanjiang-to-Weihe Project

为解决引汉济渭工程运行中调水风险因素与特征规律识别不全面的问题,以工程运行初期为研究对象,采用专家调查法识别工程主要调水风险因素并确定风险组合类型,再建立危险度模型,分析单一风险因素的稳定性和风险组合危险度的特征规律。研究结果表明:变异系数越大则风险因素稳定性越差,其中管理失误风险因素最不稳定,其值高达0.998;水源不足、需水量增加两类风险因素叠加后风险组合的危险度更高;风险组合的危险度与风险因素数量之间没有明显的正向关系。研究成果补充了引汉济渭工程调水风险特征研究的不足,为制定针对性风险减控和管理策略提供技术支撑。

Currently,the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project is facing the dilemma of incomplete identification of risk factors and characteristic rules in the water diversion process.Here,the expert investigation method was adopted to identify the main risk factors of the project and determine the risk portfolio types,and then the risk degree model was established to analyze the stability of single risk factors and the characteristic rules of risk portfolios.The results show that the greater the coefficient of variation,the worse the stability of the risk factors,and the risk of management failure is the most unstable,reaching 0.998.The risk portfolio of insufficient water source and increasing water demand is more hazardous than other portfolios.There is no obvious positive correlation between the risk degree and the risk factor quantity of risk portfolios.The research results complement the deficiency of the study on the risk characteristics of the water diversion project,and provide technical support for the formulation of targeted risk mitigation,control and management strategies.