基于脱钩指数和LMDI的第三产业用水发展研究

Development of water use of the tertiary industry based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI

第三产业在我国国民经济中占有重要地位,识别用水与产业发展关系并合理控制用水发展对于未来管控用水增长具有重要意义。基于Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,分析我国内地31个省级行政区2000—2020年第三产业经济与用水的脱钩时空演化及其驱动效应,并基于分析结果对未来第三产业的用水目标和节水压力开展情景分析。结果表明:在时间尺度上,目前我国第三产业实现了稳定弱脱钩,经济年均增长率为12.2%,远高于用水年均变化率3.6%,2012年后全国强脱钩范围扩大;在空间尺度上,不同地区第三产业脱钩状态存在差异,东部和西部地区脱钩状态较好,实现良好脱钩的省市区占比可达到70%~80%;驱动因素方面,第三产业脱钩的负向驱动效应主要是经济规模,正向驱动效应是节水能力,东部和西部地区节水能力效应贡献率达到56.8%、52.6%,中部地区贡献率仅为38.3%,驱动因素作用程度存在差异从而影响脱钩;未来为实现我国第三产业协调可持续发展,在发展经济时将面临一定节水压力,其增长过程具有规模累积效应与时间累积效应,在经济高速发展至2050年时将达到8.8%。在未来长期规划下更应重视强化节水能力,以促进第三产业良好脱钩,从而实现协调可持续发展。

The tertiary industry plays an important role in China’s national economy.It is of great significance to identify the relationship between water use and industrial development and reasonably control the development of water use in order to control the growth of total water use in the future.Based on the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI decomposition model,we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of the decoupling between the tertiary industry economy and water use,as well as their driving effects in 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China's Mainland during 2000—2020.Based on the analysis results,a scenario analysis was carried out on the water use target and water saving pressure of the industry in the future.The results show that from the temporal perspective,the tertiary industry has achieved a stable weak decoupling,with an average annual economic growth rate of 12.2%,which is much higher than the average annual change rate of water use(3.6%),and the scope of strong decoupling has expanded nationwide since 2012.From the spatial perspective,the decoupling status of the tertiary industry varied in different regions,which performed well in the eastern and western regions,with the proportion of strong decoupling achieve good decoupling reaching 70%to 80%.In terms of driving factors,the main negative driving effect of the tertiary industry decoupling was economic scale,and the positive driving effect was water saving capacity.The contribution rate of water-saving capacity effect in eastern and western regions reached 56.8%and 52.6%,respectively,whereas the contribution rate was only 38.3%in the central region,because the differences in the driving effects impacted the decoupling.In order to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of the tertiary industry in the future,water saving pressure is inevitable.The process of economic growth has a cumulative effect of scale and time,and the economy will reach 8.8%in 2050 after years of high speed development.Therefore,it is necessary to pay more attention to the water saving capacity to promote a good decoupling of the tertiary industry in the long-term planning,so as to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of economy.