农业产业集聚对农业碳排放的影响——基于环境规制的调节效应研究

The Impact of Agricultural Industry Agglomeration on Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Research on the Moderating Effect Based on Environmental Regulation

利用2003—2020年中国31个省份的面板数据,通过构建回归方程模型并运用协整检验、系统GMM方法研究了农业产业集聚对农业碳排放的影响以及环境规制所发挥的调节效应。结果发现:在国家层面,农业碳排放受到农业产业集聚的影响显现出“非线性关系”,即随着农业产业集聚程度的上升,农业碳排放总量呈先上升后下降的倒“U”型特征,并且在农业产业集聚对农业碳排放的影响中显著受到了环境规制的调节效应;而在地区层面,东部、中部和西部地区的农业碳排放均受到农业产业集聚的影响显现出先上升后下降的倒“U”型特征,但环境规制在农业产业集聚对农业碳排放的影响中的调节效应仅在东部和西部地区显著存在。

Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2020,this paper studies the influence of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural carbon emissions while examining the moderating role of environmental regulation.It achieves this through the construction of regression equation models and the application of cointegration tests and system GMM methods.The results show that,at the national level,agricultural carbon emissions are affected by the agglomeration of agricultural industries in a“non-linear relationship”.As the agricultural industry agglomeration degree increases,the total agricultural carbon emissions show an inverted U shaped characteristic.And environmental regulations in this process present a significant moderating effect.The agglomeration of the agricultural industry influences agricultural carbon emissions in the three regions at the regional level,displaying an inverted U-shaped characteristic.However,the moderating effect of environmental regulations is significant only in the eastern and western regions,not in the central.