城镇化对长江经济带农业碳排放的影响及其耦合关系研究

Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Carbon Emission and Its Coupling Relationship in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于区域一体化视角,使用长江经济带2000—2020年面板数据,多维度构建城镇化和农业碳排放指标体系,结合层次分析法和熵值法进行指标赋权,采用偏最小二乘法与耦合协调度模型定量分析二者的影响机制和耦合关系。结果表明:(1)城镇化主导类型呈现人口城镇化→空间城镇化→生态环境城镇化→经济城镇化→社会城镇化发展趋势。(2)农业碳排放空间差异显著,等级演变明显,唯安徽省和上海市一直处于最高级和最低级。(3)人口、经济、社会、生态环境城镇化是影响农业碳排放的四个重要维度,人均国内生产总值、人均教育经费、万元GDP能耗等7项指标是极重要因素。(4)城镇化与农业碳排放耦合关系呈增长态势,耦合度从磨合转向高水平耦合,耦合协调度由勉强协调发展为良好协调,说明二者共振性良好,趋于协调发展。

Based on the perspective of regional integration,the panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020 were used to construct the urbanization and agricultural carbon emission index system from multiple dimensions.The AHP and entropy method were combined to weight the indexes,and the partial least squares method and coupling coordination degree model were used to quantitatively analyze the influence mechanism and coupling relationship between the two.The results show that:(1)the dominant types of urbanization show the development trend of population urbanization→spatial urbanization→ecological environment urbanization→economic urbanization→social urbanization.(2)The spatial difference of agricultural carbon emissions is significant,and the grade evolution is obvious.Only Anhui Province and Shanghai have always been in the highest and lowest levels.(3)Population,economy,society and ecological environment urbanization are four important dimensions affecting agricultural carbon emissions.Seven indicators,including per capita GDP,per capita education expenditure and energy consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP,are extremely important factors.(4)The coupling relationship between urbanization and agricultural carbon emissions showed an increasing trend,the coupling degree changed from run-in to high-level coupling,and the coupling coordination degree changed from barely coordination to good coordination,indicating that the two have good resonance and tend to coordinate development.