港口运行效率和安全韧性

Port Operation Efficiency and Safety Resilience

港口运行效率评估对港口建设有十分重要的意义,而对港口安全韧性的研究,可以为港口安全管理和当地发展提供参考。基于2010—2021年中国7个重要沿海港口的面板数据,利用超效率DEA(data envelopment analysis)模型测算港口运行效率,利用DEA-Malmquist指数模型对各港口全要素生产率进行分解,然后结合熵权法和层次分析法测算各港口的安全韧性得分,利用障碍度模型探究影响港口安全韧性的主要障碍因子,最后利用港口安全韧性-效率矩阵对港口的发展进行分类。研究结果表明:从整体来看2010—2021年7个主要沿海港口的超效率平均值呈上升趋势,除了天津港,其他港口都达到DEA有效;各港口全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步率的均值都为1.001,除了烟台港和深圳港,其余港口全要素生产率均值都达到了1;除了深圳港,其余各港口安全韧性得分都有一定的提升,深圳港得分则出现了下降,但也保持高水平的安全韧性;影响7个港口安全韧性提升的准则层主要障碍因子为疏港交通能力,其次为水上交通安全,指标层主要障碍因子为客运量,其次为货运量、医疗卫生机构数等;基于港口安全韧性-效率矩阵将港口划分为强壮型、精干型、肥胖型和瘦弱型4种类型。最后,根据分析结果,提出相应的建议。

Port operation efficiency evaluation is of great significance to port construction,and the study on port security resilience can provide reference for port security management and local development.Based on the panel data of seven important coastal ports in China from 2010 to 2021,the super efficiency DEA(data envelopment analysis)model was used to measure the port operation efficiency,the DEA-Malmquist index model was used to decompose the total factor productivity of each port,and then the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process were combined to measure the safety resilience score of each port.The obstacle degree model was used to explore the main obstacle factors affecting the port security toughness.Finally,the port security ductile-efficiency matrix was used to classify the port development.The results show that the average super efficiency of seven major coastal ports from 2010 to 2021 shows an increasing trend,and all ports except Tianjin port reach DEA effectiveness.The mean value of total factor productivity,technical efficiency and technological progress rate of all ports is 1.001,and all ports except Yantai port and Shenzhen port reach 1.All ports except Shenzhen Port have seen some improvement in their score of safety toughness,while Shenzhen Port's score has decreased,but it still maintains a high level of safety toughness.For the criterion layer,the main obstacle factor affecting the safety resilience of the seven ports is the port evacuation traffic capacity,followed by the water traffic safety.For the index layer,the main obstacle factor is the passenger volume,followed by the cargo volume and the number of medical and health institutions.Based on the toughness efficiency matrix of port security,ports were divided into four types:strong type,lean type,fat type and lean type.Finally,according to the analysis results,the corresponding suggestions are put forward.