基于相对风险模型的区域生态风险评价

Regional Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Relative Risk Model

部分生态系统在现代社会经济发展过程中遭到了不同程度的破坏,而生态风险评价是对生态系统健康状况最重要的衡量方法之一。以云南省为研究区,选取4类主要风险源,划分5类生境,以生态系统为风险受体,4类生态系统服务为评价终点,采用相对风险模型(relative risk model, RRM),分别计算云南省各生境、风险源、评价终点及评价单元的生态风险值,并划分风险等级;利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行不确定性分析,并结合评价结果进行风险管理分析。结果表明:云南省生态风险整体状况良好,空间差异较小;昭通市的相对风险等级最高,但结果误差最大;城市生态系统生境受到的风险、人口负荷风险源对生态系统造成的风险、调节服务对生态风险的响应,三者评价结果均为最高;风险源的不确定性对风险结果的影响存在低估现象,且风险演变模拟结果趋向收敛。

A part of ecosystems have been damaged to varying degrees in the process of modern socio-economic development,and ecological risk assessment is one of the most important methods for measuring the health status of ecosystems.Taking Yunnan Province as the research area,four main risk sources,divides the area into five types of habitats,and considers the ecosystem as the risk receptor,and four types of ecosystem services as the assessment endpoints.The relative risk model(RRM)was used to calculate the ecological risk values of each habitat,risk source,assessment endpoint,and assessment unit in Yunnan Province,and the risk levels are divided by the assessment results.Subsequently,the Monte Carlo simulation method was used for uncertainty analysis,and risk management analysis is carried out on the basis of the risk calculation results.The results show that the overall ecological risk situation in Yunnan Province is good,with small spatial differences;Zhaotong city has the highest relative risk level,but the result error is the largest;The suffered risk of urban ecosystem habitat,the risk of population load risk source to the ecosystem,and the risk response of regulatory services were all the highest;uncertainty analysis indicates the impacting of risk sources to risk results is underestimated,and its evolution simulation results tend to converge.