分区变权顶板突水危险性评价方法改进及实例

Improved zoning variable weight method on risk assessment of roof water inrush and case study

为准确合理地评价煤层顶板突水危险性,文章基于地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析技术,结合熵权法对突水分区变权模型进行改进优化。为避免权重确定的主观性与计算复杂性,引入信息熵求取常权向量。为防止“极大”或“极小”值权重超调过大,提高各主控因素综合控制作用与各分区值变权重均衡性,采用保守型分区变权函数对变权模型进行修正。通过直接对主控因素栅格图运算和处理,避免因钻孔插值所造成的构造信息丢失问题。将改进模型与常权模型及仅通过钻孔构建的风险型分区变权模型进行比较,以实际突水点对评价模型进行识别检验。结果表明,改进的分区变权模型评价效果更好、精度更高,对煤矿顶板水害预测与防治具有指导性作用,在口孜东矿取得良好的应用效果。

In order to accurately and reasonably evaluate the water inrush risk of coal seam roof,this paper improves and optimizes the variable weight model of water inrush zone based on geographic information system(GIS)spatial analysis technology and entropy weight method.In order to avoid the subjectivity and computational complexity of weight determination,information entropy is introduced to obtain the constant weight vector.In order to prevent excessive overweighting of maximum or minimum values and to improve the balance between the comprehensive control function of each main control factor and the variable weight of each zone,the conservative variable weight function of each zone is used to modify the variable weight model.By directly calculating and processing the grid diagram of the main control factor,the problem of structural information loss caused by drilling interpolation can be avoided.The improved model is compared with the normal weight model and the zoning variable weight model constructed by drilling,and the actual water inrush point is used to identify the evaluation model.The results show that the improved zoning variable weight model has better evaluation effect and higher precision,and plays a guiding role in the prediction and prevention of water damage of coal mine roof,and has achieved good application effect in Kouzidong mine.