云南省跨境电商发展水平与农产品出口增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on Relationship between Cross-border E-commerce Development Level and Growth of Agricultural Exports in Yunnan Province

文章在文献研究和实证分析的基础上,利用主成分分析法构建云南省跨境电子商务发展水平测度的核心指标,并对云南省跨境电子商务水平进行评测,同时利用已测评的云南省跨境电子商务水平,针对云南省跨境电商发展水平和农产品出口贸易增长关系,结合2011—2021年的云南农产品出口增长额的时间序列数据,采用自回归模型计量方法,实证分析研究两者之间的互动关系,并对云南跨境电商和农产品出口贸易经济的进一步发展提出建议,以供参考。

Building upon existing literature and empirical evidence,this paper utilizes the Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to construct core indicators for measuring the development level of cross-border e-commerce in Yunnan Province.The evaluation of Yunnan’s cross-border e-commerce level is conducted based on the established indicators.Furthermore,leveraging the assessed level of cross-border e-commerce in Yunnan Province,this study investigates the relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and the growth of agricultural product exports.By incorporating time-series data on Yunnan’s agricultural product export growth from 2011 to 2021,this paper employs autoregressive modeling techniques for empirical analysis,exploring the interactive dynamics between the two variables.Finally,the pa-per provides recommendations for the further economic development of cross-border e-commerce and agricultural product export trade in Yunnan.