全球转型、俄乌危机与中俄关系

Global Transformation,Russia-Ukraine Crisis,and Sino-Russian Relationship

全球转型是理解俄乌危机和分析大国国际行为的总体背景,而俄乌冲突又会对全球转型的内涵与方向产生重大影响。历史地看,国际秩序呈现出周期演进的特点,但正出现“变轨”,并呈高度不确定性。俄乌冲突是当代全球转型的一个“镜像”,它映射出这一关键时刻所面临的各种问题。俄乌冲突的爆发大大加速了全球转型的演进节奏,无情揭示出被遮蔽的各类矛盾,也催化“决战心态”的涌动。俄乌冲突影响下,在世纪之交的全球转型中形成的“再转型”趋势被扭曲成为意识形态对抗性叙事。俄乌危机披露了全球转型深层结构变迁中的若干趋势,也反映出原有的“单数全球化”进程正在向“复数全球化”过渡。面对这样复杂的局面,中俄合作需要在全球转型的关键领域与核心地区表现出它不可替代的建设性和强劲的穿透力。“亚洲地中海”就是这样一个能够体现当前中俄合作高度与前瞻性的构想。以“亚洲地中海”为目标的中长期区域构建,尽管还面临诸多艰难挑战与尚待克服的障碍,但这一范畴,若付诸实施,不仅将会为中俄合作带来新机会,而且会对整体的全球转型带来环境的改善。

Global transformation is the overall background for understanding the Russia-Ukraine crisis and analyzing the international behavior of major countries,while the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a significant impact on the connotation and direction of global transformation.Historically,the international order has shown characteristics of cyclical evolution,but it is currently experiencing a“track change”and exhibits a high degree of uncertainty.The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a“mirror”of the current global transformation,reflecting various issues faced at this critical moment.The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has greatly accelerated the pace of global transformation,mercilessly exposing various concealed contradictions and catalyzing a surge in a“decisive battle mentality”.Under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the“re-transformation”trend formed in the global transformation at the turn of the century has been distorted into an ideologically confrontational narrative.The Russia-Ukraine crisis has revealed several trends in the deep structural changes of global transformation,and it also reflects that the original“singular globalization”process is transitioning to“plural globalization”.In the face of such a complex situation,Sino-Russian cooperation needs to demonstrate its irreplaceable constructiveness and strong penetration in the key areas and core regions of global transformation.The“Asian Mediterranean”is such a concept which can reflect the height and forward-looking nature of current Sino-Russian cooperation.Although the medium and long-term regional construction aimed at the“Asian Mediterranean”still faces many difficult challenges and obstacles to be overcome,if implemented,this category will not only bring new opportunities for Sino-Russian cooperation but also improve the circumstances for the overall global transformation.