2023年奶业形势回顾与展望

Situation Review and Prospect of Dairy Industry in 2023

西方奶业发达国家过去3年牛奶产量没有因奶价的上涨出现大幅上涨,这反映了其奶业产业更为成熟,为中国奶源的发展腾出了部分空间。2019—2023年,中国奶类生产的年复合增长率达到了7%,远远超过近15年来4%的奶类平均消费增速,造成了2023年奶源供给过剩,奶牛养殖大面积亏损,“奶牛周期”波动特征显著。预期产业调整期仍将持续2年左右,奶源基地内部产业结构持续调整,中小奶牛场首当其冲,需要行业给予密切关注和同心协力共渡难关;中长期看,规模奶牛场每年新增10~15万头存栏,即可以满足中国牛奶消费增长需求。在短期调整期,养殖场可压缩奶牛产能、优化牛群结构、推动种养结合、优化乳制品加工结构等方面发力,推动产业稳定发展。

Milk production of western dairy developed countries in the past three years did not rise significantly caused by the rise of milk prices,which reflects the maturity of dairy industry.The reduction of export pressure to China also vacated some space for the development of China's milk production.From 2019 to 2023,China's milk production achieved a compound annual growth rate of 7%,far exceeding the average milk consumption growth rate of 4%in the past 15 years,resulting in an oversupply of raw milk and large-scale losses for farms in 2023,and the"cow cycle"has fluctuated significantly.It is expected that the industrial depression period will continue for about 2 years,and the internal industrial structure of the dairy farms will continue to adjust,and small and medium-sized dairy farms will bear the brunt,which requires the industry to pay close attention and work together to overcome the difficulties.In the medium term,the annual growth of 100,000 to 150,000 dairy cattle can meet the growth of milk consumption in China.During the adjustment period,industrial innovation can be made in the aspects of reducing dairy cow,optimizing herd structure,promoting the combination of dairy farming and crop,and optimizing dairy product processing structure.