“双碳”背景下长三角物流业碳排放脱钩效应及影响因素研究

Study on Decoupling Effect and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Logistics Industry in Yangtze River Delta under Dual-Carbon Background

文章以“双碳”背景下长三角地区为研究对象,利用碳排放计算公式测算2007—2021年物流业碳排放量。基于Tapio脱钩模型探究长三角物流业碳排放和产业生产值之间的关系,并运用LMDI分解法分析影响物流碳排放的因素。研究表明:物流业碳排放与产业经济发展的脱钩状态呈现增长连结—弱脱钩—强脱钩。LMDI分解后的因子能源结构和能源消耗强度对于长三角物流业碳排放具有负向阻碍作用,反之物流业产值和物流就业人员规模的增加,影响二氧化碳的排放。

In the context of the “dual-carbon” goal, the Yangtze River Delta region was taken as the research object, and the carbon emission calculation formula was used to calculate the carbon emission of the logistics industry from 2007 to 2021. Based on the Tapio decoupling model, this paper explores the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial production value of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta, and uses the LMDI decomposition method to analyze the factors affecting logistics carbon emissions. The research shows that the decoupling state between carbon emissions of logistics industry and industrial economic development presents a growth link-weak decoupling-strong decoupling. The factorized energy structure and energy consumption intensity after LMDI decomposition have a negative hindering effect on the carbon emission of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta, whereas the output value of the logistics industry and the scale of logistics employment increase the carbon dioxide emission.