数字时代农业社会化服务市场决策的机理与实证研究

Mechanism and Empirical Study of Decision-Making in the Agricultural Socialized Service Market in the Digital Age

通过建立静态离散博弈模型,并在可观测决策结果为参与者博弈均衡的假设下,根据中国家庭追踪调查数据库的样本数据,对数字时代农业社会化服务市场决策进行机理与实证分析。结果表明:农业社会化服务市场决策不仅是各类农业经营主体利润最大化的经济选择,更是市场参与者的博弈均衡;农业社会化服务的规模效应和收入效应驱动了专业农户的市场进入决策,但市场进入壁垒呈现明显的正向规模性偏好;在数字时代,潜在进入者间的“数字鸿沟”制约了服务市场发展中数字技术和农业技术的协同效应。因此,在农业社会化服务市场发展过程中,应以数字化农业社会化服务平台为重点,发展服务市场“金融”功能,提升服务主体数字化素养,营造服务市场公平竞争环境,形成服务供需均衡、政策有效的农业社会化服务体系。

A static discrete game model is established,and under the assumption that the observable decision outcomes are the equilibrium of participants games,a mechanism and empirical analysis of decision-making in the digital age agricultural socialization service market is conducted based on the sample data from the China Family Panel Studies.The results show that the decision-making in the agricultural socialization service market is not only an economic choice for profit maximization by various agricultural business entities but also equilibrium of games among market participants.The scale effect and income effect of agricultural socialization services have driven the market entry decisions of professional farmers,but the market entry barriers show a significant positive scale preference.In the digital era,the″digital divide″among potential entrants restricts the synergistic effect of digital technology and agricultural technology in the development of the service market.Therefore,in the process of agricultural socialization service market development,it is necessary to focus on digital agricultural socialization service platforms,develop the″financial″function of the service market,enhance the digital literacy of service entities,create a fair competitive environment in the service market,and form a balanced agricultural socialization service system with balanced service supply and demand and effective policies.