农业保险与农业生产韧性:内在逻辑及实证检验

Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Production Resilience:Internal Logic and Empirical Tests

基于我国2007—2021年省级面板数据,通过构建指标体系测度各省份农业生产韧性水平,在时间和空间上进行演变分析,进一步从抵抗力、恢复力和变革力三个方面明确了农业保险提升农业生产韧性的内在逻辑,并进行实证检验。研究发现,样本期内各地区农业生产韧性水平均有一定程度的提升,但增长速度趋缓,整体上处于高韧性水平的地区较少,同时期粮食大省、经济强省的农业生产韧性水平一般高于其他省份;农业保险整体上可以显著提升农业生产韧性,且这一效应在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;农业保险对农业生产恢复力和变革力的影响显著为正,对抵抗力影响不显著。异质性分析发现,在粮食主产省和高成灾率水平地区,这种提升效应更大且更为显著。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2021,this paper constructs an indicator system to measure the level of agricultural production resilience in each province,and analyzes the evolution in time and space.The internal logic of agricultural insurance to improve agricultural production resilience is further clarified from three aspects——resistance,resilience and change——and empirical tests are carried out.The results showed that the resilience level of agricultural production in all regions increased to a certain extent during the sample period,but the growth rate slowed down,and fewer regions were at the high resilience level on the whole.During the same period,the resilience level of agricultural production in provinces with large grain and strong economy was generally higher than that in other provinces.Agricultural insurance as a whole can significantly improve the resilience of agricultural production,and this effect is still valid after a series of robustness tests.The effect of agricultural insurance on the resilience and innovation of agricultural production is significantly positive,but the effect on the resistance is not significant.Heterogeneity analysis showed that the improvement effect was larger and more significant in major grain-producing provinces and areas with high disaster rate.