资源依赖度、经济增长与碳排放的回弹效应

Resource Dependence,Economic Growth and the Rebound Effect of Carbon Emissions

在“双碳”目标的背景下,分析资源依赖度、经济增长对工业碳排放回弹的作用机制,运用Kaya-LMDI碳排放驱动因素分解模型测算我国2010—2019年31个省市区工业碳排放回弹效应值,并构建空间自回归模型(SAR)、空间误差模型(SEM)、空间杜宾模型(SDM)进行空间计量回归。结果表明:(1)2010—2019年我国能源资源消费碳排放回弹效应整体呈现出逐年递减的规律,且在时间和空间上具有溢出性影响,山西、宁夏、内蒙古等7个省区处于工业碳排放回弹效应高-高(H-H)聚集状态,北京、天津、上海等17个省市区处于工业碳排放回弹效应低-低(L-L)聚集状态。(2)资源依赖度对工业碳排放回弹效应的影响显著为正,具有一定空间外溢性影响。(3)区域经济增长会带来技术、资金、人力等要素的集中,驱动地区整体发展,并抑制工业碳排放回弹效应。(4)经济增长、资源依赖度对区域工业碳排放回弹的影响具有时空滞后效应和误差效应,地区间接影响的挤出效果会加大空间直接影响效果。

Under the background of"dual carbon"goal,this paper analyzes the mechanism of resource dependence and economic growth on the rebound of industrial carbon emissions,calculates the rebound effect value of industrial carbon emissions of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2019 by using Kaya LMDI carbon emission driver decomposition model,and constructs spatial autoregressive model(SAR),spatial error model(SEM)and spatial Durbin model(SDM)for spatial econometric regression.The results indicate that:(1)the carbon rebound effect of energy resources consumption in China shows a law of decreasing year by year from 2010 to 2019,and has spillover effect in time and space.Seven provinces,including Shanxi,Ningxia and Inner Mongolia,are in the state of high-high(HH)aggregation of industrial carbon emissions,while 17 provinces,including Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,are in the state of low-low(L-L)aggregation of industrial carbon emissions.(2)The effect of resource dependence on the rebound effect of industrial carbon emissions is significantly positive and has a certain spatial spillover effect.(3)Regional economic growth will bring the concentration of technology,capital,manpower and other factors,drive the overall development of the region,and restrain the rebound effect of industrial carbon emissions.(4)The effects of economic growth and resource dependence on the rebound of regional industrial carbon emissions have time-space lag effect and error effect,and the crowding-out effect of regional indirect influence will increase the space direct effect.