中国犯罪治理模式的演进——基于人口年龄结构转型的规范性分析

Evolution of Crime Governance Mode in China--Based on Normative Analysis of Population Age Structure Transformation

犯罪治理不仅是针对犯罪人的国家治理,也是关涉整个人口的社会治理。科学评价犯罪治理绩效,依赖于包括人口数据在内的各项社会数据的支撑。犯罪治理模式的演进受客观治理资源的制约;人口年龄结构转型与犯罪治理模式演进之间的内在联系在于“年龄效应”的相对不变性。结合联合国公布的人口老龄化指标,以及1949年建国、1978年改革开放、2000年跨世纪等特殊年份,中国犯罪治理模式演进过程呈现为:在人口年龄结构年轻型社会阶段,政治运动总体治理(1949年建国至20世纪70年代中期);在人口年龄结构成年型社会阶段,运动治理迈向常规化(1978年改革开放至20世纪末);在人口年龄结构老龄化社会阶段,依法治理常规化主导(2000年至21世纪20年代中期);在人口年龄结构深度老龄化社会阶段,中国特色社会主义法治体系初步形成(2025年至21世纪30年代中期)。通过价值观念、生活方式、宏观社会制度设计、微观符号这四个层面的规范性比较,探寻中国犯罪治理现代化的路径。

Crime governance involves more than just penal action against offenders;it also influences the social regulation of the population as a whole.The scientific evaluation of crime governance relies on social data,including demographic information.Patterns in crime governance are influenced by the availability of objective resources.The intrinsic link between the transformation of population age structure and the evolution of crime governance patterns lies in the relative invariance of the"age effect".The evolution process of China's crime governance pattern can be traced by combining the United Nations'aging population indicators with significant years such as the founding of the PRC,the Reform and Opening-up,and the Millennium.During the young population phase(1949-the mid-1970s),there was a strong emphasis on crime control that was intertwined with political movements.As the population became predominantly adult(1978-the end of the 20^(th) century),crime control became more comprehensive and gradually approached daily governance.In the aging population phase(2000-the mid-2020s),there was an embracement of rule-of-law principles in crime governance.Currently,there is an ongoing shift towards a rule-of-law dominated governance,concomitant with the preliminary formation of a socialist system of laws with Chinese characteristics,in the aged population phase(2025-the mid-2030s).Through a normative comparison across four dimensions(values,lifestyle,macro social system design,and micro symbols)the path to modernization of China's crime governance is explored.