2023年我国炼油和成品油市场回顾及2024年展望

Review of China's Refining and Oil Market in 2023 and Outlook for 2024

2023年,国内成品油行业完成疫后复苏的爬坡过坎。随着宏观经济回暖、用油行业需求逐步恢复及出行活动回归正常,成品油消费迎来复苏,整体消费超疫情前水平;而供应侧,产能增长放缓,企业生产负荷在需求回升、效益好转的带动下大幅回升,攀升至历史高位;同时,替代资源强势发展,气价下行带动车用LNG经济性好转,新能源汽车自主扩张动力全面形成。2024年,成品油产业链在继续修复的基础上深化转型发展。预计国内成品油消费徘徊于低速增长通道,汽油小幅增长,航煤继续恢复,柴油略降;国内炼油产能继续增长;市场经营环境有望在政策持续系统化、全面化的基础上得到进一步优化。

The domestic refined oil market in China has gradually recovered after the Covid-19 pandemic.Along with the macroeconomic growth,the gradual recovery of the oil industry and the return of travel activities to normal,the consumption of refined oil has grown normally and exceeded the pre-pandemic level in 2019.Also on the supply side,the processing volume of crude oil and the production load of enterprises have rise sharply and climbed to a record high driven on the basis of the new refining capacity.In 2024,the whole refinery chain will deepen the transformation and development on the basis of continuous restoration.It is expected that the domestic refined oil consumption will return to the low-speed growth channel,with a small increase in gasoline,a continued recovery of jet fuel,and a slight decline in diesel.The domestic refining capacity will continue to grow due to the new refinery;and the market operation environment is expected to be further optimized on a basis of continuous systematic and comprehensive policies.