PDH产业发展现状及预测

Development Status and Forecast of PDH Industry

全球约21%丙烷用于化工生产。由于北美等地C_(2)产业链利润高于C_(3),出口丙烷效益优于下游生产,北美和中东地区成为全球丙烷资源主要输出地。全球PDH装置产能的大幅增长也带动原料丙烷贸易增加,助力丙烷价格高位运行,同时需求增速保持低位。新增PDH装置主要来自中国,中国在2014—2016年经历了第一轮扩能高峰期,2019年开启第二轮PDH建设热潮。未来丙烯整体供应远超下游消费增速,过剩态势逐渐显现,直接影响PDH装置丙烯未来盈利水平。

Approximately 21%of propane worldwide is used in chemical production.Due to the higher profits of the C_(2) industry chain in North America and other regions compared to C_(3),and the higher efficiency of exporting propane compared to downstream production,North America and the Middle East have become the main export destinations for global propane resources.The significant increase in global PDH production capacity has also driven an increase in raw material propane trade,helping to maintain high propane prices.At the same time,the growth rate of demand remains low.The newly added PDH units mainly come from China.China experienced the peak period of thefirst round of capacity expansion from 2014 to 2016,and the second round of PDH construction boom began in 2019.The overall supply of propylene in the future far exceeds the growth rate of downstream consumption,and the surplus situation is gradually emerging,directly affecting the future profitability level of propylene in PDH units.