塔里木河源流与干流径流量变化特征研究

Study on the Characteristics of Runoff Changes in the Source and Main Streams of Tarim River

基于塔里木河流域源流和干流1957-2022年实测径流数据,运用Mann-Kendall和person相关分析等方法,探讨其径流变化趋势和突变特征以及相关关系。结果表明:塔里木河源流径流量整体上呈增加趋势,干流径流量呈下降趋势。塔里木河源流区土地资源开发程度不断增大使水资源消耗加剧,导致下泄塔里木河干流的水量逐年减少。在塔里木河源流径流频率低于75%的情景下,塔河干流径流量的增幅小于源流;反之,塔河干流径流量的降幅小于源流。

Based on the measured runoff data of the source and main streams of Tarim River Basin from 1957 to 2022,this study uses methods such as Mann Kendall and person correlation analysis to explore the trend and mutation characteristics of runoff changes,as well as their related relationships.The results show that the overall runoff of Tarim River source is increasing,while the runoff of the main stream is decreasing.The continuous increase in land resource development in the source area of the Tarim River has intensified water resource consumption,leading to a decrease in the amount of water discharged from the main stream of Tarim River year by year.In the scenario where the frequency of runoff in the source stream of Tarim River is less than 75%,the increase in runoff in the main stream of Tarim River is smaller than that in the source stream.On the contrary,the decrease in runoff of the main stream of Tahe River is smaller than that of the source stream.