中国城镇失能老年人口规模及养老服务需求预测

Prediction of the Disabled Elderly Population Size and the Demand for Elderly Care Services in Urban China

以全国第六次和第七次人口普查数据为基准数据,结合CLHLS微观数据库,对2050年以前城镇失能老年人口养老服务需求进行了预测。结果显示:随着年龄的增加,中国城镇老年人的失能率不断提高,其中在65岁以上、80岁以上及100岁以上的老年人群体中,其平均失能率分别为28.98%、42.12%和76.04%;未来城镇重度失能老年人口规模将不断扩大,2050年以前其所占比例会超过城镇总失能老年人口的25%,而且男性重度失能人口规模始终低于女性重度失能人口规模;未来城镇重度失能老年人养老服务人员需求数量处于上升状态,预计2050年以前其每年需求的平均规模会超过500万人;随着城镇化的推进,未来城镇失能人口将高于农村失能人口。因此,应尽快建立覆盖城镇居民的长期照护机制;针对不同的城镇失能人群构建差异化的长期护理模式;加快建设针对城镇失能老年人的专业照护人员队伍;完善失能老年人养老服务规制。

Based on the 6th and 7th National Population Census data and CLHLS microdatabase,this paper forecasts the demand for old-age care services for the future disabled elderly population in cities and towns before 2050.The results show that with the increase of age,the disability rate of the urban elderly in China is increasing,especially in the groups of over 65 years old,over 80 years old and over 100 years old,the average failure rates were 28.98%,42.12%and 76.04%respectively.In the future,the scale of the urban severely disabled elderly population will continue to expand,and its proportion will exceed 25%of the total urban population by 2050.Moreover,the scale of the male severely disabled population will always be lower than that of the female severely disabled population.In the future,the demand for service personnel for the severely disabled elderly in cities and towns will be on the rise,and it is expected that the average annual demand scale will exceed 5 million before 2050.With the advancement of urbanization,the future urban population will be higher than the rural disabled population.Therefore,it is necessary to establish a long-term care mechanism for urban residents as soon as possible,and to construct a differentiated long-term care model for different urban disabled population,we will accelerate the development of a team of professional caregivers for the disabled elderly in cities and towns,and improve the regulation of elderly care services for the disabled.