新疆北部城市碳排放时空分异与碳平衡分区

Spatial and temporal differentiation of carbon emissions and carbon balance analysis in northern Xinjiang

研究城市土地利用碳排放时空格局与碳平衡分区,对实现碳减排和“双碳”目标至关重要。以新疆北部46个县市为研究区,利用土地利用与能源数据,通过碳排放系数法计算2000—2020年土地利用碳排放,分析碳排放量时空演变情况,对各县市进行碳平衡分区。结果表明:(1)碳排放量呈总体上升趋势,2016—2020年呈现指数型上升的趋势,碳吸收量缓慢下降,碳排放强度先下降后上升,碳排放量远大于碳吸收量。(2)碳排放主要来源于建设用地,天山北坡城市为主要碳排放城市,碳吸收主要来源于草地与林地,伊犁河谷地区、阿尔泰山南部等地城市为主要碳吸收城市。(3)碳排放空间相关性逐渐减弱,热点区集中分布在克拉玛依市附近,冷点区集中分布在伊犁州与阿勒泰地区。(4)依据经济承载力系数、生态承载力系数以及碳排放量划分为碳汇功能区、碳汇优化区、低碳经济区、碳源优化区和高碳控制区五个碳平衡分区。

The study of spatial and temporal pattern analysis of urban land use carbon emissions and carbon balance zoning is of great importance for achieving carbon emission reduction and“dual carbon”goals.Taking 46 counties and cities in northern Xinjiang as the study area,using land use and energy data,the carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate land use carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020,analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon emissions,and make carbon balance zoning for each county and city.The results showed as follows:(1)Carbon emissions showed an overall upward trend,and an exponential upward trend from 2016 to 2020.Carbon uptake decreased slowly,carbon emission intensity decreased first and then increased,and carbon emissions were much higher than carbon uptake.(2)Carbon emission mainly comes from construction land,cities on the north slope of Tianshan Mountain are the main carbon emission cities,carbon absorption mainly comes from grassland and forest land,and the Ili Valley and the southern Altai Mountain are the main carbon absorption cities.(3)The spatial correlation of carbon emissions gradually weakened,the hot spots were concentrated in the vicinity of Karamay City,and the cold spots were concentrated in Ili Prefecture and Altay Prefecture.(4)According to the economic contribution coefficient,ecological carrying capacity coefficient and carbon emissions,it can be divided into five carbon balance zones:carbon sink function zone,carbon sink optimization zone,low-carbon economic zone,carbon source optimization zone and high carbon control zone.