中国死亡独生子女母亲总量及变动趋势再研究

Restudy of the Total Number and Changing Trend of Women Losing Their Only Child in China

伴随我国生育水平降低,城镇地区独生子女家庭逐渐成为主流,面临较大的独生子女死亡风险。“七普”数据的公布为探究我国死亡独生子女母亲规模提供了更全面的数据资料,基于“四普”至“七普”数据,汇总不同子女数量的妇女规模,利用年龄移算的方法测算得到2020年已经退出育龄期的死亡独生子女母亲规模。结果显示,当前50岁及以上“曾生子女无子女”妇女规模约为288.8万人,其中50—59岁死亡独生子女母亲规模达到191.9万人,占当前死亡独生子女母亲总量的66.4%;“六普”数据中死亡独生子女母亲规模与“七普”数据缺乏一致性,基于“六普”数据到“七普”数据的打靶预测结果表明,“七普”数据可能高估当前死亡独生子女母亲规模;随着生育水平的下降、生育进度的推迟,未来妇女独生子女死亡风险提高,死亡独生子女母亲规模快速增长趋势将保持稳定。基于此,建议一方面加速构建生育支持体系,避免长期生育率低迷问题;另一方面也要进一步完善计划生育特殊家庭扶助制度,多部门协调扩大独生子女父母的养老扶助资源。

With the decrease in China’s fertility level,only-child families in urban areas have gradually become the mainstream,and face significant risks of only-child mortality.The release of the Seventh National Census provides more comprehensive data for exploring the number of women who lost their only child.Based on the data from the Forth to Seventh National Census,this paper summarizes the patterns of women with different numbers of children,and calculates the number of women aged 50 and above who have lost their only child in 2020 by population-shift algorithm.The results showed that about 2.888 million women aged 50 and above lost their all children born,among which 1.919 million women are aged 50-59,accounting for 66.4%of the total number of women who lost their only child.There is a lack of consistency of the number of women who have lost their only child between the Sixth National Census data and the Seventh National Census data.Based on the target prediction results from the Sixth National Census data to the Seventh National Census data,the Seventh National Census data may overestimate the number of women losing their only child.With the decline of fertility level and the delay of fertility,the risk of losing only child will increase in the future,and the rapid growth trend of the number of women who losing only child will remain stable.On the one hand,this paper suggests to accelerate the construction of fertility support system to avoid long-term low fertility rate.On the other hand,the system of special support for family planning families should be further improved,and multiple departments should coordinate and expand support resources for parents with only one child.