经济结构调整对城市经济韧性的影响研究——以长江经济带为例

The Impact of Economic Restructuring on Urban Economic Resilience:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2008—2020年长江经济带108个地级市面板数据,全面考察经济结构调整的多维因素对城市经济韧性的影响机理及影响效应。研究发现:(1)长江经济带经济结构调整、城市经济韧性均具有显著的正向空间关联性,呈现“一荣俱荣”的空间特征。(2)产业结构调整、要素结构调整以及消费结构调整对本地城市经济韧性产生“结构红利”,即对本地经济韧性具有显著增促作用;人口结构调整与本地城市经济韧性呈“倒U”型关系。(3)产业结构调整与消费结构调整对空间关联地区经济韧性具有显著的正向间接效应;归咎于竞争效应,要素结构调整对相邻地区经济韧性产生消极影响;人口结构调整与空间关联地区经济韧性呈“U”型关系。最后,在建立区域协作机制、挖掘经济转型发展“结构红利”、构建“中心-周边”联系网络等方面给出相关政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2020,the mechanism and effect of multidimensional economic restructuring factors on cities'economic resilience are examined.This study finds that economic restructuring and urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have a significant positive spatial correlation,showing the spatial characteristics of“one prosperity and one prosperity”.Industrial restructuring,factor restructuring,and consumption restructuring have a“structural dividend”on local cities'economic resilience;they significantly contribute to local economic resilience;demographic restructuring has an“inverted U”-shaped relationship with the economic resilience of local cities.The relationship between demographic restructuring and the economic resilience of local cities is inverted U-shaped.Industrial restructuring and consumption restructuring have significant positive indirect effects on the economic resilience of spatially linked regions;due to the competition effect,factor restructuring has a negative impact on the economic resilience of neighboring regions;demographic restructuring has a“U”shape relationship with the economic resilience of spatially linked regions.Finally,policy recommendations regarding establishing a regional collaboration mechanism,tapping the“structural dividend”of economic transformation,and building a“center-periphery”linkage network are given.