能源工业投资结构变迁、能源消费结构低碳化和全要素能源效率的互动关系

The Interactive Relationship between the Changes in Investment Structure of Energy Industry,Low-carbon Energy Consumption Structure,and Total Factor Energy Efficiency

运用夹角余弦法测算了2004—2019年30个省份的能源工业投资结构变迁指数和能源消费结构低碳化指数,并基于非期望产出的SBM模型测算了全要素能源效率,然后建立面板向量自回归模型考察上述三个内生变量的短期及长期的动态互动效应。研究结果表明,三个内生变量的自我效应都是当期达到峰值后随时间衰退,且另外两个内生变量对能源工业投资结构变迁作用显著为负,但能源消费结构低碳化能帮助预测能源工业投资结构变迁。同时,能源消费结构低碳化受全要素能源效率的正向推动,并和能源工业投资结构变迁共同促进了全要素能源效率的提升,二者对全要素能源效率有一定的预测能力。因此,要注意提升能源工业投资结构变迁效益和全要素能源效率,以延长能源消费结构低碳化周期并增强低碳化强度。

This article uses the angle cosine method to calculate the index of investment structure change in the energy industry and the low-carbon index of energy consumption structure and calculates the total factor energy efficiency based on the SBM model of unexpected output.Then,a panel vector autoregres-sive model is established to examine the short-term and long-term dynamic interaction effects of the three endogenous variables mentioned above.The results show that the self-effects of the three endogenous vari-ables all decline over time after reaching their peak in the current period,And the other two endogenous variables have a significant negative impact on the changes in the investment structure of the energy indus-try.However,the low-carbon energy consumption structure can help predict the changes in the investment structure of the energy industry,while the low-carbon energy consumption structure is positively driven by the total factor energy efficiency and jointly promotes the improvement of the total factor energy efficiency with the changes in the investment structure of the energy industry.Both have a certain predictive ability on the total factor energy efficiency.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to improving the efficiency of investment structure changes and total factor energy efficiency in the energy industry,to extend the low-carbon cycle of energy consumption structure and enhance the low-carbon intensity.