农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的影响——基于甘肃省的实证研究

The Impact of Aging Agricultural Workforce on Food Production—Based on Empirical Research in Gansu Province

随着人口老龄化的加剧,农业劳动力老龄化势必会在一定程度上影响粮食生产。基于2000~2019年甘肃省的时序数据,构建C—D生产函数模型,量化分析了农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:现阶段甘肃省粮食增产主要取决于农业机械投入,劳动力供给不足在一定程度上促进了农业劳动生产率的提高和机械化进程,稳定了粮食产量;短期内,农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产并未造成不利影响,但长期内,在要素的边际生产力递减规律的作用下,粮食增产将更加困难。因此,未来需进一步强化农业生产设施和服务体系建设,改善农机作业条件以及提高农药、化肥等生产要素的使用效率来应对农业劳动力结构变化和促进甘肃省粮食生产。

With the intensification of population aging,the aging of agricultural labor is bound to affect food production to a certain extent.Based on the time-series data of Gansu Province from 2000 to 2019,this paper constructs a C-D production function model,and quantitatively analyzed the impact of aging agricultural labor force on grain production.The results showed that at this stage,the increase in grain production in Gansu Province mainly depends on the input of agricultural machinery,the insufficient supply of labor had promoted the improvement of agricultural labor productivity and mechanization process to a certain extent,and stabilized grain output.In the short term,the aging of agricultural labor will not adversely affect grain production,but in the long run,under the influence of the law of diminishing marginal productivity of factors,it will be more difficult to increase grain production.Therefore,it's necessary to further strengthen the construction of agricultural production facilities and service systems,improve the operating conditions of agricultural machinery,and improve the efficiency of the use of production factors such as pesticides and fertilizers to cope with changes in the structure of agricultural labor force and promote grain production in Gansu Province.