基于季节性时间序列模型的西藏那曲牧草生长预测研究

A Study on the growth prediction of Forage Grass in Naqu in Tibet based on seasonal time series model

为了保护西藏生态环境,了解牧草相关的生长情况,使用NASA提供的16天合成MODIS数据,以归一化植被指数(NDVI)作为牧草的生长覆盖特征指标,预测NDVI就可以更好地评估牧草的生长情况,以那曲市的NDVI为例,利用ARIMA和SARIMA模型进行预测,结果显示SARIMA模型有着良好精度预测,能够更好地评估牧草地生长情况。

In order to protect the ecological environment of Xizang and understand the growth of forage,the 16-day synthetic MODIS data provided by NASA was used to predict the normalized vegetation index(NDVI)to better evaluate the growth of forage by using the NDVI as the growth cover characteristic index of forage.Taking the NDVI in Naqu City as an example,the ARIMA and SARIMA models were used for prediction.The results showed that the SARIMA model had good accuracy in prediction and could better evaluate the growth of the forage grass.