“双碳”目标下环境规制对中国绿色低碳转型发展的影响研究

On the Impact of Environmental Regulation on China's Green and Low-carbon Transformation and Development under the Constraint of“Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality”Goals

检验环境规制对中国碳排放绩效的影响,并分析产业结构在环境规制影响碳排放绩效改善过程中的交互作用,对推动绿色低碳转型发展,实现中国经济高质量发展具有重要意义。研究结果表明:环境规制对碳排放绩效呈现先抑制后促进的“U”型非线性影响,这一结论在经过替换被解释变量和变换估计方法等稳健性检验后依然成立。同时,研究发现环境规制主要通过技术创新效应(技术进步)和要素配置效应(技术效率)间接影响碳排放绩效改善。而产业结构调整与环境规制的交互项系数显著,表明产业结构是环境规制影响中国碳排放绩效不可忽视的重要因素。此外,研究还进一步发现南北方在环境规制“U”型曲线的拐点值存在显著异质性。研究结论揭示了我国在绿色低碳转型发展道路上,应充分考虑发展过程中的地区异质性,并根据地区的不同特性实施差异化的环境规制政策。

This paper tested the influence of environmental regulation on China's carbon emission performance,and then analyzed the interaction within industrial structure during the environmental regulation process,and its significance to enhancing the green and low-carbon transformation and achieving high-quality economic development.The research results show that environmental regulation has a“U”-shaped nonlinear impact on carbon emission performance,which first suppresses and then promotes.This conclusion remains true after replacing the explanatory variables,estimation methods,and other robustness tests.The study also shows that environmental regulation indirectly influences the enhancement of carbon emission performance primarily through technological innovation effects(technical progress)and factor allocation effects(technical efficiency).The interaction coefficient between industrial structural adjustment and environmental regulation is significant,indicating that industrial structure is an important factor in the impact of environmental regulation on China's carbon emission performance.Additionally,the study reveals significant heterogeneity in the inflection point value of the“U”curve of environmental regulation between the northern and southern regions.On China's route of green and low-carbon transformation and development,regional heterogeneity in the development process should be fully considered,and differentiated environmental regulation policies be implemented according to the different characteristics of regions.