小学生统计推理能力表现的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Primary School Students’Statistical Reasoning Performance

发展小学生统计推理能力有助于促进学生养成“用数据说话”的理性精神,契合了大数据时代对现代公民的素养要求.对此,采取混合研究方法,以一所普通公办小学的321名六年级学生为研究对象,基于统计推理能力的评价量规来开展表现性评价,刻画了学生统计推理的总体表现及典型表现特征.结果显示:在总体表现上,近九成六年级学生的统计推理能力处于单一结构水平和多元结构水平,其中超过五成的学生处于单一结构水平,少数学生仍处于前结构水平,极少数能达关联水平.在具体表现特征上:86.0%的六年级学生能推测数据之外的信息;90.1%的六年级能运用数据作为证据来初步解释推测;32.1%的学生能真正反思到推测的不确定性;在3个指标上,学生存在不同的作答策略和学习迷思.由此,通过实现评价框架、测试题、评分标准的有机统一,构建了统计推理能力的评价体系,为推动学生的统计推理能力发展,以及数据意识和推理意识的培养提供了基础.

The development of primary school students’statistical reasoning ability helps to promote students to develop a rational spirit of“speaking with data”,which is in line with the literacy requirements of modern citizens in the era of big data.In this regard,a mixed research method is adopted.Taking 322 sixth-grade students from an ordinary public primary school as the research participants,the performance assessment is carried out based on the rubric of statistical reasoning ability.The current study depicts the overall performance and typical performance characteristics of students’statistical reasoning.The results show that:in terms of overall performance,nearly 90%of the sixth-grade students’statistical reasoning is at the Uni-structural level and Multi-structure level,and more than 50%of the students are at the Uni-structural level;a few students are still at the Pre-structure level,and very few can reach the Relational level.In terms of specific performance characteristics:86.0%of sixth graders can infer information beyond the data;90.1%of sixth graders can use data as evidence to preliminarily explain the inference;32.1%of them could really reflect on the uncertainty of the inference;and on the three indicators,students have different answering strategies and learning myths.As a result,by realizing the organic unity of the assessment framework,test items,and scoring standards,an assessment system for statistical reasoning ability is constructed,which reveals the reasoning cognitive process in the“statistics”area.The application provides a foundation for promoting the development of students’statistical reasoning ability and the cultivation of data awareness and reasoning awareness.