我国碳金融对碳排放的空间溢出效应和影响机制分析

Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effect and Impact Mechanism of China's Carbon Finance on Carbon Emission in China

选取2011-2020年中国30个省份的相关数据,利用空间面板杜宾模型SDM研究碳金融对区域碳排放的影响。研究发现:碳排放在省域之间具有显著的正向空间溢出效应;碳金融与碳排放量之间存在着显著的非线性关系,两者之间呈现倒U形关系,并通过一系列稳健性检验;通过中介效应模型得出碳金融可以通过加快地区产业结构高级化、研发强度和能源消费结构升级的作用机制促进碳减排。碳排放存在着空间关联和路径依赖,当期碳排放会受到往期碳排放的累积效应阻碍,因此减排降碳工程需要长期努力的坚持与规划。国家应立足碳金融试点,构建均衡低碳发展格局;因地制宜实现碳减排最大化;构建碳金融统筹机制,促进区域协调发展。

Relevant data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 were selected to study the impact of car-bon finance on regional carbon emission by using the spatial panel Durbin model SDM.The study found that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect of carbon emission among provinces.There is a significant nonlinear relationship between carbon finance and carbon emission,showing an inverted U-shaped relation-ship between the two,which has been verified through a series of robustness tests.Through the mediating ef-fect model,it is concluded that carbon finance can promote carbon emission reduction by accelerating the up-grading of regional industrial structure,R&D intensity,and energy consumption structure.Carbon emission have spatial correlation and path dependence.The current carbon emission will be hindered by the cumulative effect of previous carbon emission,so the emission reduction and carbon reduction project requires long-term efforts and planning.The country should base on the pilot carbon finance to build a balanced and low-carbon development pattern;maximizing carbon emission reduction according to local conditions;and establish a car-bon finance coordination mechanism to promote coordinated regional development.