改革开放与中国减贫奇迹——基于合成控制法的新证据

Reform and Opening-up and Poverty Reduction Miracle in China:New Evidence Based on Synthetic Control Method

识别中国改革开放减贫奇迹的净效应及机制是推动经济高质量发展的关键。文章构建包含改革开放、消费增长和居民福利的动态结构模型,首次采用合成控制法科学评估改革开放对消费增长的影响及机理,并采用反事实模拟方法测算福利效应。研究发现,改革开放的实施使得中国1978年以来消费增长率提高了5个百分点;改革开放带来的福利增进相当于永久每年给每人3 446元;改革开放通过推动收入增长的渠道促进消费增长。文章基于消费增长福利效应视角,剖析改革开放创造的伟大减贫成就,这对于新征程上坚定不移地全面深化改革开放和解决居民消费不足问题具有重要启示。

Identifying the net effect and mechanism of reform and opening-up and poverty reduction miracle in China is the key to promoting economic high-quality development.The study constructs a dynamic structural model that includes reform and opening-up,consumption growth and residents'welfare,and for the first time adopts a synthetic control method to scientifically assess the impact and mechanism of reform and opening-up on consumption growth and adopts counterfactual simulation method to measure the welfare effect.This study finds that reform and opening-up has accelerated consumption growth rate by an average 5 percent every year since 1978,that the welfare enhancement brought about by it is equivalent to a permanent annual payment of RMB 3446 yuan per person;and that it has contributed to the consumption growth through promoting the channel of income growth.Based on the welfare effect of consumption growth,the paper analyzes the great achievement in poverty reduction created by reform and opening-up,which serves as an vital inspiration for further deepening reform and opening-up and alleviating residents'inadequate consumption in the new journey.