2012—2022年常州市武进区猩红热流行特征及时间序列分析

Epidemiological characteristics and time series analysis of scarlet fever in Wujin district,Changzhou city from 2012 to 2022

目的了解2012—2022年江苏省常州市武进区猩红热病例的流行病学特征及发病趋势,为做好猩红热防控工作提供依据。方法以描述流行病学方法分析2012—2022年武进区猩红热流行特征,采用2012—2021年猩红热病例的月报告数构建季节自回归综合移动平均模型(SARIMA模型)并预测2022年的发病数。结果2012—2022年武进区共报告猩红热病例557例,年均报告发病率为3.55/10万,2014年报告发病率最高达5.07/10万,之后发病率总体呈下降趋势(趋势χ^(2)=14.256,P<0.001)。每年3—6月和11月至次年1月为发病高峰;病例男女性别比为1.64∶1,以4~8岁儿童为主、占病例总数的76.66%。通过检验的最优模型为SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,1)12,参数估计有统计学意义,Ljung-Box检验残差为白噪声序列(P=0.799);用该模型预测2022年猩红热月发病数,实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间。结论2014年起武进区猩红热报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,SARIMA模型可短期预测猩红热发病,为疫情防控提供参考;应加强幼儿园和小学猩红热的监测防控。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of scarlet fever in Wujin district of Changzhou city,Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2022,so as to provide basis for the prevention and control of scarlet fever.Methods The descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the characteristics of scarlet fever in Wujin district from 2012 to 2022.The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model was established based on the monthly reported cases with scarlet fever from 2012 to 2021 for forecasting the incidence of scarlet fever in 2022.Results There were 557 cases with scarlet fever reported in Wujin district from 2012 to 2022,with the average annual reported incidence rate of 3.55/100000.The annual reported incidence rate of 5.07/100000 was the highest in 2014,and then the incidence rate generally showed downward trend(Х^(2)=14.256,P<0.001).The peaks of incidence were from March to June and from November to January of the next year.The ratio of the male to the female was 1.64:1,and the children aged 4-8 years were the main and accounted for 76.66%of the total number of cases.The SARIMA(1,0,O)(1,0,1)i2 was the optimal model which passed test,and the parameter estimation was with statistically significant,and the residual of Ljung-Box test was white noise sequence(P=0.799).The monthly number of the cases suffered from scarlet fever in 2022 were predicted with this model,and the actual number of the cases fell within the 95%CI of the predicted number of the cases.Conclusions Since 2014,the reported incidence rates of scarlet fever in Wujin district shows decreasing trend.The SARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction of the incidence of scarlet fever,and providing reference for epidemic prevention and control.The prevention and control measures of scarlet fever should be strengthened in kindergartens and primary schools.