苏纳克政府对华认知变化与中英关系的未来

Adjustments in the Sunak Government’s Perception of China and the Future of China-UK Relations

自约翰逊政府上台以来,中英关系持续遇冷。2022年10月,里希·苏纳克接替特拉斯成为新一任英国首相。回溯苏纳克上台以来的对华认知表态发现,英国近期对华认知出现某些调整,开始展现重新与华接触的积极意愿。本文认为,俄乌冲突背景下,英国对华认知变化是由一系列内外因素共同作用的结果。内部因素包括英国社会内部多种难题亟待解决、国内经济下行压力持续增加以及保守党极端势力的政治掣肘;外部因素包括英国难以忽视其他西方国家的访华热潮、难以回避中美战略竞争加剧的现实冲击以及英欧关系再平衡的需求。苏纳克政府缓和对华认知,将在一定程度上影响中英关系的未来。一方面,调整对华认知可能有助于重启中英双边关系、拓展双边合作空间以及助力“全球英国”的外交战略。另一方面,英国“两面性”对华政策的持续也可能进一步增加中英双边关系的复杂性,且英国对华政策的强意识形态色彩近期可能难有太多改变。总之,英国近期对华认知确实出现某些较以往积极的调适。准确把握此窗口期,探寻重启中英交流与合作的多种渠道,挖掘双边合作潜力,对双边关系的改善与发展有重要意义。

Since the Johnson government,the UK has had a frosty relationship with China.In October 2022,Rishi Sunak succeeded Elizabeth Truss as Prime Minister.A review of Sunak’s statements on China reveals that British perception has undergone some changes recently,evincing a positive willingness to re-engage China.This paper argues that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the change in the UK’s perception of China has resulted from a series of internal and external factors.Internal factors include the challenge of coping with a variety of pressing domestic issues,the growing downturn in the UK economy,and the political constraints imposed by the extremist forces of the Conservative Party.External factors include the impossibility of ignoring the wave of visits to China by other Western countries,inability to avoid the impact of intensified strategic competition between China and the US,and the need to rebalance the UK’s relationship with Europe.The subtle improvement in British perceptions of China will,to some extent,affect Sino-British relations.On the one hand,adjustment in Sunak’s perception of China may help to restart bilateral relations as this makes more room for cooperation with China,and facilitate the promotion of a“Global Britain”.On the other hand,the continuation of the UK’s“two-faced”policy towards China may further complicate bilateral relations,and the strong ideological overtones of the UK’s China policy are not likely to change in the near future.In short,the UK has recently made some positive adjustments in its perception of China.It will be of great significance for China-UK relations if the two countries can seize this window of opportunity,and draw out the potential for cooperation by exploring various channels for restarting bilateral exchanges and cooperation.