这次不一样:美联储升息缩表与金融市场韧性

The Impact of the Fed's Monetary Policy Tightening on Financial Market Liquidity

美联储于2022年3月进入以加息为起点的本轮货币政策紧缩周期,并于同年6月开始缩减资产负债表(即量化紧缩QT)。目前,加息已接近尾声,但量化紧缩仍将继续。货币政策紧缩尤其是QT对金融市场流动性的影响存在很大的不确定性,美联储和市场参与者对这种影响的理解也很有限。然而,2015—2019年的上一轮货币政策紧缩周期,尤其是QT对市场流动性的影响,以及2019年9月发生的流动性危机,为本轮紧缩周期提供了有价值的参考。本文分析上一轮美联储货币政策紧缩周期中金融市场流动性危机的成因、影响和教训,比较两轮货币政策紧缩周期特别是QT的特点和优劣,建立一套具有关键基准的指标来评价和衡量货币政策紧缩环境下的市场流动性,并利用这些指标来探讨本轮紧缩周期对市场流动性的影响,同时预测未来走势。

The Fed entered the current monetary policy tightening cycle in March 2022 with interest rate hikes that were followed by a shrinking of its balance sheet(Quantitative Tightening,or QT)in June of the same year.At present,the end of the rate hike cycle is near,but QT will continue.There is a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of monetary policy tightening,especially QT,on financial market liquidity.The Fed and market participants have a limited understanding of the potential impact,however.The previous round of monetary policy tightening began in 2015 and continued through 2019.The liquidity crisis that erupted in September 2019 provides a valuable reference for the current tightening cycle.This report analyzes the causes,impacts and lessons learned.It also compares the characteristics of the two rounds of monetary policy tightening and establishes a set of indicators with critical benchmarks to evaluate and measure market liquidity.It also makes predictions of likely future trends as well.