情绪视角下网络舆情发生期的演化博弈与仿真分析

Evolutionary game and simulation analysis of the occurrence period of internet public opinion from the perspective of emotion

在网络舆情的发生期,信息的传播更多地存在于网民群体内部,相较于政府组织,网民群体极易受到情绪因素的影响,因此分析不同情绪对网民群体决策的影响,有利于提高对网络舆情发生期的有效监管。本文将等级依赖期望效用(Rank Dependent Expected Utility,RDEU)理论与博弈理论相结合,考虑网络舆情发生期情绪因素对于网络舆情演化的影响作用,构建网民与意见领袖演化博弈模型;通过仿真实验,分析不同情绪组合下的均衡策略选择。研究结果表明:在多数情况下,情绪状态能够加快舆情的演化;相较于网民,意见领袖的情绪状态对舆情的演化结果能产生更显著的影响。

During the occurrence of online public opinion events,information primarily circulates within the online community,and compared to government organizations,online communities are highly susceptible to emotional factors.Therefore,analyzing the impact of different emotions on the decision-making of online communities is conducive to improving effective supervision during the occurrence of online public opinion events.This paper combines Rank Dependent Expected Utility(RDEU)theory with game theory to consider the influence of emotional factors during the occurrence of online public opinion events on the evolution of such events.It constructs a game model of the evolution of opinions between netizens and opinion leaders and analyzes equilibrium strategy choices under different emotional combinations through simulation experiments.The research results indicate that,in most cases,emotional states can accelerate the evolution of public opinion,and,in comparison to netizens,the emotional states of opinion leaders have a more significant impact on the outcome of public opinion evolution.