基于复杂网络和免疫策略的斜拉桥主梁施工安全风险耦合分析

Safety risk coupling analysis of cable-stayed bridge main girder construction based on complex network and immunization strategy

斜拉桥主梁施工是一项复杂系统行为,施工过程中风险事故可能存在多条演化路径,因此具有复杂性和不确定性。为满足当前对施工安全风险管理的更高要求,提出一种基于复杂网络的风险耦合分析方法。首先,通过主梁施工作业程序分解及致险状态分析以识别安全风险因素;然后,基于复杂网络理论,借助邻接矩阵构建主梁施工安全风险的耦合网络模型,对特征指标进行研究分析并得出风险演化特征;最后,运用MATLAB软件对网络进行免疫仿真,包括单个节点免疫、随机免疫和蓄意免疫,以识别出关键节点并提出施工风险管控策略。结果显示:蓄意免疫的效果明显优于随机免疫,综合考虑免疫结果应优先预防和控制网络关键节点代表的风险点,从而有效降低网络效率,提高施工安全性。

The construction of the main girder of a cable-stayed bridge is a complex system behavior,and there may be multiple evolutionary paths of risk accidents during the construction process,which has put forward higher requirements for its construction safety risk management.Since the research on risk coupling for bridge construction is relatively weak,this paper proposes a risk coupling analysis method based on complex networks by fully considering the transfer and evolutionary behavior among risk factors.Firstly,according to the bridge construction specification and engineering practice experience,the primary safety risk factors were identified by decomposing the construction operation procedure of the main girder of the cable-stayed bridge,and then the secondary safety risk factors were obtained by analyzing the risk-causing status of each of them.Then,based on complex network theory,the coupled network model of main girder construction safety risk was constructed with the help of an adjacency matrix to characterize the association and causal relationship between risk factors,and the characteristic indicators were studied and analyzed to derive the risk evolution characteristics.Finally,the network efficiency evaluation was introduced and MATLAB software was used to simulate the network with different immunity strategies,including single node immunity,random immunity,and deliberate immunity.The results show that:there is a close correlation between various risk points in the network and between risk points and risk events;the effect of deliberate immunization is significantly better than random immunization;risk factors such as operator operating skills,operator safety awareness,and object strikes play a key role in the network;the safety risk of operator quality is the primary safety risk factor with the greatest degree of influence on the construction of the main girder;taking the immunization results into account,priority should be given to preventing and controlling the risk points represented by the key nodes of the network,to effectively improve construction safety.