LPR改革对于商业银行盈利能力的影响——基于双重差分模型

Analysis of Impact of LPR Reform on the Profitability of Commercial BanksBased on the Double Difference Model

2019年我国进行了LPR改革,这是我国近三十年来利率市场化中极为关键的一步。由于一系列利率市场化的改革措施不断落地以及LPR改革的实施,商业银行作为一国经济领域的重要一环也随之受到了较大影响。由于LPR改革后存贷快利差进一步降低,这使得商业银行传统的以存贷利差获取收入的盈利模式遭受到了较大冲击。本文研究了此次改革对于商业银行盈利能力的影响。通过收集15家上市商业银行于2013-2022年的相关数据并整理为面板数据,运用Stata软件建立DID双重差分模型进行实证分析,发现2019年的LPR改革显著改变了商业银行的盈利能力。为了使商业银行在利率市场化的趋势下正常运营,本文后续对商业银行的经营提出了一些建议。

In 2019,China carried out LPR reform,which was a crucial step in the marketization of interest rates in the past thirty years.Due to the continuous implementation of a series of interest rate liberalization reform measures and the implementation of LPR reform,commercial banks,as an important part of a country's economic sector,have also been greatly affected.Due to the further reduction of the interest rate spread between deposits and loans after the LPR reform,the traditional profit model of commercial banks that relies on the interest rate spread between deposits and loans has been greatly impacted.This article studies the impact of the LPR reform on the profitability of commercial banks.By collecting relevant data from 15 listed commercial banks from 2013 to 2022 and organizing them into panel data,a DID double difference model was established using Stata software for empirical analysis.The empirical results indicate that the LPR reform in 2019 significantly changed the profitability of commercial banks.In order to ensure the normal operation of commercial banks under the trend of interest rate marketization,this article proposes some suggestions for the operation of commercial banks in the future.