慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者随访25年长期预后分析

Long⁃term prognosis analysis of chronic hepatitis B patients followed up for 25 years:Retrospective cohort study

目的探讨慢性乙型病毒性肝炎(慢乙肝)患者年龄对其肝硬化、肝癌发病率的影响。方法检索1995-1998年于深圳市中医院住院的慢乙肝患者,按照患者年龄,分为高龄组和低龄组,通过HIS系统长期随访,使用SPSS、R语言计算患者随访25年肝硬化、肝癌累积发病率并进行组间比较,使用多因素logistic回归探讨危险因素。结果随访期间279例慢乙肝患者进展为肝硬化24例、肝癌12例。肝硬化5、10、15、20年及25年肝硬化累积发病率,低龄组为分别1.5%、2.1%、5.4%、11.6%、15.5%,高龄组为5.5%、9.8%、22.9%、29.0%、52.1%。两组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);共2个危险因素(年龄、随访时间)纳入回归模型。低龄组2例分别在随访17、21年进展为肝癌;高龄组5、10、15、20年及25年累积发病率为1.8%、3.8%、18.5%、21.8%、26.7%;共5个因素(初始年龄、HBV-DNA载量、终点前HBV-DNA转阴、随访时间及性别)纳入回归模型。结论初始年龄≥40岁的慢乙肝患者,尤其男性患者,其肝硬化、肝癌的发病率明显高于低龄患者,及时启动抗病毒治疗可延缓疾病进展,降低终末肝病发病率。对于30~40岁的人群是否应启动抗病毒治疗仍有待研究。

Objective To investigate the effect of age on the incidence of cirrhosis and liver cancer in patients with chronic hepatitis B.Methods 279 patients with chronic hepatitis B were divided into the senior group and the younger group according to the age of the patients.The cumulative incidence of cirrhosis and liver cancer during 25 years of follow-up was calculated by using SPSS and R language through the long-term follow-up of HIS system,and the risk factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression.Results During follow-up,24 cases developed cirrhosis and 12 cases developed liver cancer.The cumulative incidence of liver cirrhosis was 1.5%,2.1%,5.4%,11.6%and 15.5%in the 5-year,10-year,15-year,20-year and 25-year group,and 5.5%,9.8%,22.9%,29.0%and 52.1%in the elderly,respectively.The difference between the younger age group and senior age group was statistically significant(P<0.001).A total of 2 risk factors(age and follow-up time)were included in the regression model.Two cases in the younger group developed into liver cancer after 17 and 21 years of followup,respectively.The cumulative incidence rates at 5,10,15,20 and 25 years were 1.8%,3.8%,18.5%,21.8%and 26.7%.A total of five factors(initial age,HBV-DNA load,HBV-DNA turned negative before the end⁃point,follow-up time,and sex)were included in the regression model.Conclusions The incidence of cirrhosis and liver cancer in CHB patients aged≥40 years,especially in male patients,is significantly higher than younger CHB patients.Timely initiation of antiviral therapy can delay disease progression and reduce the incidence of termi⁃nal liver disease.Whether antiviral therapy should be initiated for people aged 30 to 40 years remains to be studied.