分布式光伏发电项目的投资影响因素研究

RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT INFLUENCING FACTORS OF DISTRIBUTED PV POWER GENERATION PROJECTS

为应对全球气候变化,中国提出了碳达峰、碳中和的战略目标。作为中国实现该目标的重要途径之一,分布式光伏发电不仅能够减少和替代化石能源消费,而且有利于构建安全、高效的局域微电网,近年来在政策的影响下得到快速发展。目前,分布式光伏发电项目的投资竞争已经进入白热化阶段,优质的项目资源越来越少,同时又面临产业链上游环节原材料价格的波动和补贴退坡等问题,分布式光伏发电项目的投资决策越发困难。首先对分布式光伏发电系统的优势进行了分析,然后从补贴政策、产业链价格传导、售电收入的不确定性这3个方面对新能源投资企业在分布式光伏发电项目投资决策中需要考虑的几个关键影响因素进行了分析。研究结果可为日后在更加严峻的投资环境中的项目投资决策提供借鉴和参考。

To address global climate change,China has proposed strategic goals of"emission peak and carbon neutrality".As one of the important ways for China to achieve this goal,distributed PV power generation can not only reduce and replace fossil energy consumption,but also facilitate the construction of a safe and efficient local microgrid,and has been rapidly developed in recent years under the influence of policies.At present,the investment competition for distributed PV power generation projects has entered a white hot stage,with fewer and fewer high-quality project resources.At the same time,it is facing problems such as fluctuations in raw material prices and subsidy decline in the upstream links of the industrial chain,making investment decisions for distributed PV power generation projects increasingly difficult.This paper first analyzes the advantages of distributed PV power generation systems,and then analyzes several key influencing factors that new energy investment enterprises need to consider in their investment decisions for distributed PV power generation projects from three aspects:subsidy policies,industry chain price transmission,and uncertainty in electricity sales revenue.The research results can provide reference and guidance for project investment decision in more severe investment environments in the future.