基于二维云模型的埋地管道腐蚀风险量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Buried Pipeline Corrosion Risk Based on Two-dimensional Cloud Model

为实现埋地管道腐蚀风险的量化评价和可视化分析,将二维云模型、组合权重和Bow-tie模型相结合,从事故可能性和事故严重度两个方面出发,利用云模型的不确定性分析实现了定性数据和定量结论之间相互转变,并采用信任度更高的差异系数对事故严重度的影响因素进行加权计算,最后通过正向云发生器实现实际云图的可视化展示。结果表明,待评价管道中含水量、二氧化碳含量、硫化氢含量、服役年限及外防腐状态等事件的风险等级较高,均达到了Ⅲ级,其余事件的风险等级为Ⅰ级或Ⅱ级;待评价管道的总体腐蚀风险为Ⅲ级,与现场实际情况相符。应从降低输送介质中酸性气体含量、定期进行外防腐层修复、定期清管等方面入手,降低管道的腐蚀风险。研究结果可为同类管道的腐蚀评价提供实际参考。

In order to realize the quantitative evaluation and visual analysis of buried pipeline corrosion risk,the two-dimensional cloud model,combined weight and Bow-tie model were combined,and the uncertainty analysis of cloud model was used to realize the mutual transformation between qualitative data and quantitative conclusions from two aspects of accident possibility and accident severity.The difference coefficient with higher trust is used to weight the influencing factors of the accident severity,and finally the actual cloud image is visualized by the forward cloud generator.The results show that the risk levels of the events such as water content,carbon dioxide content,hydrogen sulfide content,service life and external corrosion protection state in the pipeline to be evaluated were all higher,reaching levelⅢ,while the risk levels of the other events were level I or Level II.The overall corrosion risk of the pipeline to be evaluated is levelⅢ,which is consistent with the actual situation on site.The risk of pipeline corrosion should be reduced by reducing the content of acid gas in the conveying medium,as well as repairing the outer anti-corrosion layer and pigging regularly.The research results can provide practical reference for corrosion evaluation of similar pipelines.