外部冲击、金融业开放与“双支柱”调控

External Shocks,Financial Openness and Dual-Pillar Regulatory Framework

面对高度复杂不确定的外部环境,如何设计政策组合以实现金融业开放、汇率市场化以及国内经济恢复等多重宏观经济目标具有重要的理论与现实意义。为此,本文构建一个具有金融业开放特征的多部门DSGE模型,分析货币政策与宏观审慎政策“双支柱”调控框架应对外部冲击的作用机制与福利效果,并讨论金融业开放水平对汇率制度选择与政策协调搭配的影响。研究表明:为应对外部冲击,中央银行对汇率波动进行管理的力度需要随金融业开放水平的提高而不断加大。同时,金融业开放水平越高,宏观审慎政策逆周期调节银行资产负债表以稳定金融系统乃至整个宏观经济的效果越好。进一步地,在“双支柱”调控框架下,货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调搭配使用不仅可以带来显著的福利改进,而且能够降低央行对汇率波动的最优管理程度,提高货币政策独立性,从而为实现金融业开放、汇率市场化以及国内经济恢复等多重目标创造条件。

In the current highly complex and uncertain external environment,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to investigate how to achieve multiple macroeconomic objectives such as financial openness,exchange rate liberalization,and domestic economic recovery through policy combination design.This paper constructs a multi-sectoral Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model with features of financial openness to analyze the mechanism and welfare implication of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macroprudential policy in response to external shocks.Additionally,the paper explores the impact of the level of financial openness on the choice of exchange rate regimes and the coordination of policies.Numerical simulation results indicate that,firstly,to address external shocks,the central bank needs to intensify its management of exchange rate volatility with the increasing level of financial openness.Simultaneously,the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in counter-cyclically adjusting bank balance sheets improves with a higher level of financial openness,stabilizing the financial sector and,consequently,the entire macroeconomy.Moreover,within the“dual-pillar”regulatory framework,the coordinated use of monetary policy and macroprudential policy not only brings about significant welfare improvements but also reduces the optimal degree of central bank management of exchange rate volatility.This,then,enhances the independence of monetary policy,creating conditions for achieving the multiple goals of financial openness,exchange rate liberalization,and domestic economic recovery.In comparison to existing research,this paper makes several contributions.Firstly,the paper provides an insightful complement to the literature,which has less often analyzed dual-pillar regulation from the perspective of financial openness.Secondly,by investigating the policy combination design needed for simultaneous financial openness and exchange rate liberalization,this paper provides quantitative research support for policymaking to achieve multiple macroeconomic objectives.Thirdly,the paper discusses the existence of macroprudential policies and the influence of different regulatory intensities on the independence of monetary policy,offering theoretical insights for enhancing monetary policy independence and adhering to a policy stance that balances internal and external equilibrium in the context of financial openness.