贸易条件冲击与发展中国家经济波动——基于53个国家的SVAR分析

Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies——Based on SVAR Analysis of 53 Countries

如何加强和推进南南合作是所有发展中国家共同面临的问题。本文以1980—2020年53个发展中国家为样本,构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型探究贸易条件冲击对发展中国家宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现:第一,虽然同属于支出法GDP核算体系,但生产端GDP与支出端GDP在核算发展中国家经济活动时存在显著差异,主要原因是发展中国家与发达国家之间贸易条件不同;第二,支出端GDP核算方法与宏观调控政策可以更好地解释贸易条件冲击对宏观经济波动的影响,可将解释程度从已有文献的10%提升至40%;第三,发展中国家多采用加剧经济周期的宏观调控政策,无法起到熨平周期的作用,因为促进经济增长和维持汇率稳定双重目标不能同时实现。本文从核算方法视角解释了理论模型与实证分析之间存在分歧的原因,为加强南南合作以期实现互利共赢的发展中国家提供政策参考。

In recent years,the international situation and trade cooperation have undergone profound changes unseen.Strengthening and promoting South-South cooperation becomes a severe challenge for all developing economies.Compared with the steady improvement of the terms-of-trade of developed and developing countries have experienced continuous negative impacts in recent years,posing a risk of impoverishing growth.Based on macroeconomic data from 53 developing countries spanning from 1980 to 2020,this paper investigates the effect of the terms-of-trade shocks on the macroeconomic fluctuations of developing countries.Firstly,although both the production-side GDP and expenditure-side GDP fall under the expenditure approach of the national income accounting system,there is a significant difference between them when measuring economic activities in developing countries.The difference mainly stems from the terms of trade between developing and developed countries.Secondly,the terms-of-trade shock can explain 40% of the macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries when using the expenditure-side rather than production-side GDP and considering monetary and fiscal policies.Thirdly,the macroeconomic policies of developing countries often present an abnormal phenomenon regarding procyclical adjustment,mainly due to the government's choices of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to deal with the adverse effects of the pressure of domestic currency appreciation on exports.This paper explains the significant differences between theoretical models and empirical analysis from a new perspective and provides important policy insights for relying on“South-South trade”to achieve mutual benefits for developing countries.Firstly,as passive recipients of international prices,developing countries should pay more attention to expenditure-side GDP,representing the actual welfare level of the country's residents.Secondly,China should promote the“Belt and Road”initiative and strive to create a trade environment that could mitigate the impacts of a series of terms-of-trade shocks for developing countries.Thirdly,relying solely on adopting expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to promote exports is far from sufficient for developing countries to achieve long-term stable economic development.Instead,developing countries should employ suitable macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economic cycle based on specific terms of trade.