数字贸易规则深化带来环境红利了吗——基于贸易隐含碳视角的考察

Has the Deepening of Digital Trade Rules Brought Environmental Benefits:An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Trade

文章基于2000~2014年世界42个主要经济体MRIO及环境账户数据,实证研究了数字贸易规则深化对出口隐含碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:(1)数字贸易规则深化能够显著降低缔约国出口隐含碳排放强度,该结论通过了多项稳健性检验。(2)机制分析表明,数字贸易规则深化主要通过强化双边价值链关联、加强制造业服务要素投入替代、加强数字中间品进口技术溢出实现对出口隐含碳排放强度的抑制效应。(3)异质性分析表明,数据流动类条款对出口隐含碳排放强度的作用效果最强,贸易环境类次之,隐私保护类条款最弱;数字贸易条款总体完善对污染密集型行业和非技术密集型行业的减排效果更明显。基于研究结论,文章对推动高水平数字贸易规则签订、提高对外开放质量和推进数字经济建设方面提出政策建议。

Based on MRIO and environment account data of 42 major economies in the world from 2000 to 2014,this paper empirically investigates the impact of the deepening of digital trade rules on the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in export.The research shows that:(1)the deepening of digital trade rules can significantly reduce the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in export of the contracting party,and this conclusion passes a series of robustness tests;(2)mechanism analysis indicates that the deepening of digital trade rules exerts inhibition effect on the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in export mainly through strengthening bilateral value chain correlation,enhancing service factor inputs substitution of manufacturing industry and promoting technology spillover of digital intermediate goods imports;(3)heterogeneity analysis reveals that data flow clauses have the strongest effect on the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in export,followed by trade environment clauses and privacy protection clauses;the overall improvement of digital trade clauses exerts more significant carbon emission reduction effect on pollution-intensive industries and non-technology-intensive industries.Based on the research findings,this paper provides policy recommendations for advancing the signing of high-standard digital trade rules,improving the quality of opening up and promoting the construction of digital economy.