中国资本账户开放的“大、小安排”迷局与破解思路

The"Big and Small Arrangement"Puzzle and Solution of China's Capital Account Liberalization

资本账户开放是推进高水平对外开放的重要环节,在经济下滑时期被寄予厚望,而其蕴含的风险决定了开放必须审慎而行。中国资本账户开放的核心问题是“大安排”与“小安排”问题,前者指其与汇率自由化、利率市场化的协调,后者为各子账户开放的时间安排与空间安排。鉴于现有学术研究尚无法全面指导两个进程的推进,合理可行的方案是先凝聚现有研究的共识,再基于人民币国际化的三个阶段,将“顶层设计”的学术研究与“摸着石头过河”的现实推进有机结合,以保障资本账户开放的总体科学性与现实可行性。文章进一步论证:在实践方面,应贯彻协调推进原则、渐进试错原则、相机“层级推进”原则、阶段性回缩调整原则;在学术方面,基于机器学习的非线性组合门槛模型与基于大国开放DSGE模型的制度演进模拟应是未来的研究方向。

Capital account liberalization is an important part of promoting high-level opening-up to the outside world,and it is given high hopes during the economic downturn.However,the inherent risks determine that the liberalization process must be handled with caution.The core issue of China's capital account liberalization is"big arrangements"and"small arrangements",wherein the former refers to its coordination with exchange rate liberalization and interest rate marketization,and the latter refers to the time and space arrangements for the liberalization of each sub-account.Given the insufficient state of the existing academic research,which is not comprehensive enough to fully guide the advancement of the two arrangements,a reasonable and practical solution is to first consolidate the consensus from existing research.Subsequently,aligned with the three stages of RMB internationalization,there is a need to organically combine the"top-level design"derived from academic research with the pragmatic approach of"crossing the river by feeling the stones".Such approach ensures both scientific rigor and practical feasibility in the overall design of capital account arrangement.The article further demonstrates that in practice,the following principles should be applied:coordinated progression,gradual trial and error,discretionary"hierarchical promotion",and phased retraction and adjustment.On the academic front,the future research directions should focus on the non-linear combination threshold model using machine learning and the institutional evolution simulation based on a large-country open-economy DSGE model.