中国机场货运规模体系分布特征及其演变——基于“位次—规模”法则的实证检验

Distribution Characteristics and Evolution of China’s Airport Cargo Scale System:An Empirical Study Based on Rank-Size Rule

利用“位次—规模”法则,可以对中国机场货运规模体系分布情况(Zipf指数)进行估算。研究表明:目前,中国机场货运规模体系呈现出以上海浦东、北京首都、广州白云、深圳宝安四大机场为核心枢纽,成都双流、杭州萧山、郑州新郑三大机场为区域枢纽的“4+3+N”空间发展格局;中国机场货运规模体系Zipf指数低于美国同期的15.11%,且近年来呈逐渐下降趋势;考虑空间维度的空间滞后模型(SLM)估计结果显示,中国机场货运规模体系存在空间竞争,2009—2018年Zipf指数为0.505~0.597,普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型高估了中国机场货运规模体系Zipf指数达12.04%。通过定量测度中国机场货运规模体系分布情况,可以为行业管理者和政策制定者优化中国机场货运规模体系提供新的决策依据。

This study analyzes the distribution level of China’s airport cargo scale system(Zipf index)based on the Rank-Size Rule.The results show that:at present,China’s airport cargo scale system presents a“4+3+N”spatial de-velopment pattern with Shanghai Pudong,Beijing Capital,Guangzhou Baiyun and Shenzhen Baoan airports as the core hubs,and Chengdu Shuangliu,Hangzhou Xiaoshan and Zhengzhou Xinzheng airports as the regional hubs;the Zipf index of China’s airport cargo scale system is lower than that of the United States,which is 15.11%in the same period,and has gradually declined in recent years;the estimation results of the spatial lag model(SLM)considering spatial dimensions show that there is spatial competition in China’s airport cargo scale system and its Zipf index was between 0.505 and 0.597 from 2009 to 2018,while the OLS model overestimated the Zipf index of China’s airport cargo scale system by 12.04%.This paper studies the distribution level of China’s airport cargo scale system with quantitative methods and aims to provide a new basis for industry managers and policy makers to optimize China’s airport cargo scale system.