土地二级市场的风险特征、传导路径与监管策略——基于2045份裁判文书的实证分析

Risk Characteristics,Transmission Pathways and Regulatory Strategies in the Secondary Land Market:Based on Content Analysis of 2045 Land Disputes Court Cases

研究目的:探索土地二级市场的风险特征及传导路径并提出监管策略,为要素市场化改革背景下的用地市场监管提供思路。研究方法:文本分析法,统计分析法,案例分析法,系统分析法。研究结果:(1)土地二级市场存在交易规则、主体行为、主体诚信、主体能力、交易标的、合约效力、市场环境7大类风险以及土地违法行为风险等17个风险因素。(2)从交易类型看,土地转让、出租、抵押三种交易类型的风险数量、风险爆发阶段以及风险类型差异显著;从交易过程看,土地二级市场风险贯穿于事前、事中、事后全过程,集中爆发于交易执行阶段;从市场主体看,交易主体所导致的风险占据主导地位,且贯穿交易全过程;从空间分布看,西部地区高风险事件类型多于东、中部地区。(3)基于结构—过程—主体构建的土地二级市场风险传导理论框架分析表明,主体的能力、诚信、行为等能动性要素会影响土地二级市场结构性要素的构建,制度、市场等结构性要素会作用于主体行动,土地二级市场风险从潜伏、累积到爆发受主体与结构要素的共同作用。研究结论:以“有为政府”联袂“有效市场”为导向,构建基于交易全过程和涵盖制度环境、监管主体、监管手段等监管要素的土地二级市场监管体系,探索完善土地二级市场制度体系、构建土地二级市场全过程动态监管体系、完善土地二级市场运行机制、加强市场主体约束机制等监管策略。

The purposes of this paper are to clarify risk characteristics and transmission pathways in the secondary land market while proposing regulatory strategies for improved land market supervision within the context of factor marketization reform.The research methods include textual analysis,statistical analysis,cases study and system analysis.The results indicate that:1)the secondary land market involves seventeen risk factors categorized into seven main groups:transaction rules,subject actions,integrity,capabilities,transaction subjects,contract enforceability,market conditions,and the risk of illegal land use activities.2)From the perspective of transaction types,there are significant differences in the number of risks,risk outbreak stages,and risk types among the three transaction types,i.e.,land transfer,leasing and mortgage.From the perspective of transaction process,risks in the secondary land market exist throughout the entire process,with a concentration during the transaction implementation phase.Regarding market subjects,risks caused by transaction subjects dominate and pervade the entire transaction process.In terms of spatial distribution,the western region has a greater variety of high-risk event types compared to the eastern and central regions.3)Through an examination of structure,process and subjects,we’ve established a theoretical framework for risk transmission in the secondary land market.Our results demonstrate that subject attributes,including competence,integrity and behavior,affect the development of structural elements.Additionally,institutional and market-related factors influence agent actions.This interaction ultimately leads to the gradual accumulation and emergence of disputes in the secondary land market’s risk transmission process of the secondary land market.In conclusion,the establishment of an all-encompassing regulatory framework for the secondary land market should be guided by the symbiosis of a proactive government and an efficient market.This framework must contain institutional environment,regulatory authorities,methodologies and the entire transaction process.The regulatory strategies proposed involve refining institutional structures,implementing dynamic supervision,enhancing operational mechanisms,and strengthening participant constraints,in accordance with the principles of effective governance within the evolving landscape of land market reform.