工业机器人与全球生产网络演化——基于量化结构模型方法的研究

Robots and Global Production Network Evolution:Based on Quantitative Structural Model

当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,全球产业链加速重构,正确认识全球生产布局变化中不同因素的作用是科学制定对外政策的基础。本文聚焦人工智能技术冲击,基于结构模型,定量考察工业机器人应用对全球生产网络演化及中国生产分工地位的影响。在理论方面,本文首次在区分中间品和最终品贸易的模型中引入工业机器人,全面刻画了工业机器人影响全球生产网络的各种机制,构建了衡量全球生产网络强度和结构特征的指标。在量化研究中,基于世界投入产出表等数据校准模型参数,并对工业机器人价格下降进行反事实模拟。研究发现,世界增加值贸易额下降,但垂直专业化分工程度上升;全球生产网络结构更为均衡;美洲的区域内合作弱化,而欧洲和亚洲地区的区域内合作更加紧密;中国与世界其他地区的供给和需求网络联系均进一步增强。本文的研究克服了简约式估计方法的不足,量化了工业机器人应用对全球生产网络影响的一般均衡效应,对于建设贸易强国具有重要的政策启示。

In the context of profound changes not seen in a century,the global production network is undergoing rapid restructuring.A correct understanding of the impact of various factors on production cooperation between countries is the foundation for effective economic policy.This paper focuses on the impact of industrial robots on the evolution of the global production network.Research results have significant implication for China to seize the opportunities of the new technological revolution and achieve the goal of becoming a trading powerhouse.The paper employs quantitative structural analysis to examine the impact of industrial robots application on the evolution of global production networks.The quantitative structure model incorporates elements related to industrial robots and the input-output links between countries,and distinguishes between intermediate goods and final goods trade.It illustrates how robots impact global production networks through cost,income and spillover channels.The paper establishes a comprehensive analytical framework for studying the effects of robots on global production networks,offering a novel perspective on related issues within the realm of global production networks.Based on parameters with data from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),the International Federation of Robotics(IFR),World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS),and American Time Use Survey(ATUS),this paper conducts the counterfactual analysis on a 50%decrease in the price of industrial robots.Firstly,from the perspective of the intensity of the global production network,the world value-added trade volume decreases,but the degree of vertical specialization increases.Secondly,in terms of structure,global production networks become more balanced,with larger economies experiencing smaller changes in the scale of value-added trade.Additionally,intraregional cooperation centered on the United States weakens,while intraregional cooperation centered on Germany and the mainland of China strengthens.Thirdly,the intensity of supply and demand network connections between China and regions outside the mainland of China increases.Fourthly,in the influence of the increasing application of industrial robots,spillover effects are the primary mechanism that affects the intensity of global production networks,while income effects are the primary channel that affects global production network structure.Finally,the increased application of industrial robots increases real wages in the world's economies,with an average increase of 1.73%.The finding that the industrial robots application contributes to an increase in real wages worldwide means that intelligent production will be the global trend,providing academic support for China's policy to actively promote intelligent manufacturing.Based on the conclusions regrading the changes in the strength and structure of the global production network,there are implications for both internal and external policies.Internally,there is need to continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform,ensuring a smooth domestic cycle,and effectively dealing with the potential risk of trade decline in the future.Externally,China can take the opportunity of the latest RCEP to promote the signing of high-level free trade agreements with other Asian countries,which will further consolidate and enhance China's position in the regional value chain within Southeast Asia.