河北沧州鸭梨生长期主要气象灾害变化特征及其对产量影响的量化分析

Variation characteristics of main meteorological disasters and their effects on yield of'Yali'pear in Cangzhou,Hebei Province

利用沧州市鸭梨主产区气象观测资料、鸭梨生长期资料和产量数据,采用气候倾斜率、Mann-Kendall突变检验、多元线性回归等方法,分析了沧州市鸭梨生长期主要气象灾害变化特征及其对产量形成的贡献率。结果表明:近50年来,花期冻害趋势减轻,频次和强度分别在1995年和2002年前后发生突变,呈显著减少和减弱趋势;花期连阴雨趋势减轻,尤其21世纪以后呈显著减轻趋势;21世纪以后,果实膨大期高温日数增多,极端最高气温多发,高温热害趋势加重;21世纪以后,果实成熟期日照时数显著减少,使连阴雨寡照频次明显增多,极端性增强,连阴雨灾害趋势加重;发育期冰雹灾害趋势减轻,1998年前后发生突变,呈显著减少趋势;5种主要气象灾害对鸭梨产量形成的影响权重排序依次为:发育期冰雹>果实膨大期高温热害>果实成熟期连阴雨>花期冻害>花期连阴雨。

Based on the meteorological observation data,developmental period data and yield data from the main production area of‘Yali’pear in Cangzhou,the climatic slope,Mann-Kendall mutation test and multiple linear regression were used,the characteristics of main meteorological disasters and their contribution to yield formation during‘Yali’pear growing period in Cangzhou were analyzed.The results showed that:in the past 50 years,the trend of frost injury in flowering period was reduced,and the frequency and intensity of frost injury were mutated in 1995 and 2002 respectively.The trend of continuous overcast and rain in florescence decreased,especially after the 21st century.After the 21st century,the number of days with high temperature in fruit expansion period increased,extreme high temperature occurred frequently,and the trend of high temperature damage was aggravated.After the 21st century,the number of sunshine hours in the mature period decreased significantly,resulting in an increase in the frequency of even rainy days,an increase in extremes,and an aggravating trend of even rainy days.During the growing period,the hail disaster tended to decrease,and the hail disaster had a sudden change around 1998.The order of weight of five meteorological disasters on yield formation of‘Yali’pear was hail during the growing period>high temperature damage during fruit expansion period>continuous rain during fruit mature period>freezing damage during flowering period>continuous rain during flowering period.