运气信念对在线抽奖促销参与意愿的影响:概率与价值视角

The Influence of Beliefs in Luck on the Willingness to Participate in Online Lottery Promotion:A Perspective on Probability and Value

中奖概率和奖品价值是影响个体参与抽奖意愿的两个关键维度。基于此,设计出“小概率/大价值”和“大概率/小价值”两种抽奖组合,并设计了三个心理学实验,以揭示在线抽奖概率/价值维度、运气信念和不中次数对个体参与抽奖意愿的影响。研究结果显示:(1)相比大概率/小价值组合,人们普遍更偏爱小概率/大价值组合,从而验证了在线抽奖决策过程存在小概率高估的事实,也阐明了人们热衷参与小概率/大价值在线抽奖活动的基本原理。(2)运气信念对人们的在线抽奖选择具有一定调节作用,运气信念低的个体更倾向于选择大概率/小价值的在线抽奖活动,运气信念高的个体则更喜欢小概率/大价值的锦鲤类抽奖活动。(3)对多次不中仍继续参与在线抽奖的现象进行研究,发现运气信念与奖品价值/概率在初次参与抽奖时存在交互效应,但多次参与抽奖不中后这种交互效应消失,此时即使高信念水平的个体也不再热衷于大价值/小概率的抽奖。这一结论为企业更好地开展抽奖促销活动、消费者更理性的抽奖决策以及政府对抽奖销售更有效的监管均提供了重要启示。

Probability and prize value are two key dimensions that affect individuals'willingness to partici-pate in a lottery.Based on these two dimensions,two types of"low-probability/high-value"and"high-prob-ability/low-value"lottery combinations and three psychological experiments are designed to reveal the impact of probability or value,luck belief,and the number of failures on individuals'willingness to participate in online lottery promotions.The results demonstrate that:(i)compared to the"high-probability/low-value"lottery,people generally prefer the"low-probability/high-value"combinations,which verifies the fact that people overestimate the small probability in the online lottery decision-making process and elucidates the bas-ic principle of people's enthusiasm for participating in"low-probability/high-value"online lottery activities;(ii)the luck belief has a moderating effect on people's online lottery selection,showing that individuals with low luck belief prefer the"high-probability/low-value"online lottery,while those with high luck belief in luck individuals prefer the"low-probability/high-value"one;(ii)the research on the phenomenon of con-tinuing to participate in online lottery despite multiple failures found that there is an interactive effect be-tween luck belief and probability/value at the initial participation.However,this interaction effect disap-pears after multiple failures.At this time,even individuals with high luck belief are no longer keen on par-ticipating in"low-probability/high-value"lottery after multiple attempts.These conclusions provide impor-tant implications for enterprises to carry out lottery promotion activities better,for consumers to make more rational lottery decisions,and the government to regulate lottery sales more effectively.