2005—2035年全国电网碳排放因子的计算与预测

Calculation and prediction of carbon emission factors for the national power gridfrom 2005 to 2035

为解决全国电网碳排放因子数据更新滞后、计算方法不明确等问题,提出一种基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳核算法的全国电网碳排放因子计算方法。IPCC碳核算法涵盖了火力发电的25种能源。首先,计算2005—2022年全国电网碳排放因子;其次,通过对比全国电网碳排放因子的计算结果与官方公布数据,检验该方法的准确性,两者平均偏差仅为1.45%;最后,在基准情景、低碳情景和强化情景下,对2023—2035年的碳排放因子进行预测。2035年碳排放因子在3种情景中分别下降至0.5064,0.4807,0.4438 kg/(kW·h),电力低碳化水平持续提高。该计算方法具有较高的准确性,可动态反映我国电力结构的现状及变化趋势,为准确评估企业用电实际碳排放提供有力支撑。

In the view of delayed data updates and inaccurate calculations on the carbon emission factor of the national power grid,a calculation method based on IPCC's carbon emission accounting method is proposed for the factor.IPCC's carbon emission accounting method can be employed on 25 kinds of fuels for power generation.First,carbon emission factors of the national power grid from 2005 to 2022 are obtained by the proposed methods.Then,the calculation results are compared with the official published data with an average deviation of 1.45%,which prove the accuracy of the algorithm.Finally,the emission factors from 2023 to 2035 are predicted under three scenarios,basic scenario,low-carbon scenario,and intensive carbon reduction scenario.In 2035,the emission factor decreased to 0.5064,0.4807,and 0.4438 kg(/kW·h)under the three scenarios,keeping the carbon emissions from power industry constantly low.As the proposed method has a high accuracy,it can dynamically reflect the current situation and development trend of China's power structure,and provide support for accurate evaluating on carbon emissions from electricity consumers.