Hossfeld模型在矿区地表动态沉降预测应用的可行性分析

Feasibility analysis of the application of the Hossfeld model for the prediction of dynamic subsidence in mining areas

采用时间模型进行沉降预测是目前煤矿区地表动态沉降预测方法之一,在分析典型时间模型存在时间零点问题的基础上,采用林木增长模型(即Hossfeld模型),结合水准观测数据和D-InSAR沉降数据,对Hossfeld模型在煤矿开采沉降盆地范围内单点和任意点沉降预测精度,以及模型参数的相关性进行了评价。研究结果表明:在联合水准数据单点沉降预测结果中,修正时间零点的Knothe模型和Usher模型精度高于未修正时间零点的Knothe模型和Usher模型;在RMSE<100 mm比例中,Hossfeld模型精度略低于修正时间零点的Usher模型,高于未修正时间零点的Usher模型,远高于修正时间零点和未修正时间零点的Knothe模型;在MAE<100 mm比例中,Hossfeld模型精度最高;在联合D-InSAR沉降数据矿区全盆地任意点动态沉降结果中,通过统计构建动态预计模型参数相关性,发现Hossfeld模型参数的相干性最强;进一步,通过计算Bland-Altman图表明Hossfeld模型结果与D-InSAR结果差别较小,并且在RMSE和MAE<20 mm误差范围内,Hossfeld模型精度比例最高。相对于Knothe模型和Usher模型而言,Hossfeld模型无需时间零点修正,并且获取较高精度的煤矿地表动态沉降预测结果。

The use of time models for subsidence prediction is one of the most commonly methods for predicting dynamic deformation in coal mining areas.Based on analyzing the existence of time-zero problems in typical time function models,this paper introduces a Forest Growth Model(i.e.,the Hossfeld model),and analyzes the prediction accuracy of the Hossfeld model for the subsidence prediction at a single point and an arbitrary points in the coal mining subsidence basin by using the leveling data and the D-InSAR results,and evaluates the correlation of the model parameters.The results show that in the prediction results of single-point subsidence from leveling data,the accuracy of Knothe and Usher models with corrected time-zero is higher than that of Knothe and Usher models with uncorrected time-zero;the proportion of the subsidence prediction results with the RMSE<100 mm from the Hossfeld model is slightly lower than that of the Usher model with corrected time-zero,higher than that of the Usher model with uncorrected time-zero,and much higher than that of the Knothe time function model with corrected and uncorrected time-zero;the Hossfeld model has the highest accuracy in the MAE<100 mm;in the prediction results of arbitrary points subsidence from D-InSAR technology observation,the statistical correlations of the parameters used to construct the dynamic prediction model show that the Hossfeldmodel is the most coherent;further,the calculation of the Bland-Altman shows that the difference between the results of the Hossfeld model and the D-InSAR results is relatively small and has the highest accuracy at RMSE and MAE<20 mm.Compared with Knothe model and Usher model,the Hossfeld model has obvious advantages in accuracy for dynamic subsidence prediction because it does not require time-zero correction.