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“鸟起巢中,水出源头”:区域产业动态的碳排放效应

Tracing the origin:Carbon emission effects of regional industrial dynamics
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摘要 在“双碳”目标下,区域产业结构及动态的碳效应成为重要议题。基于中国工商企业注册数据库和CEADs碳排放数据库,实证分析了中国区域产业动态的碳排放效应。研究发现:(1)中国的区域碳排放格局具有明显的空间分异性,呈现“北高南低”以及向大中城市簇状聚集的分布格局。(2)不同要素密集型产业具有异质性碳排放效应。资本密集型及知识密集型产业的进入有利于城市减少碳排放;资源密集型以及劳动力密集型产业具有比较优势的城市会产生更多的碳排放。具体而言,煤炭开采和洗选业、金属制品业等产业进入对区域碳排增长有显著正向影响。(3)政府推动下的清洁化生产与数字化转型能够削减产业动态的碳排增长效应,其调节效应同样存在产业异质性。相关研究成果对“双碳”目标下中国区域产业转型与高质量发展具有一定的指导意义。 In recent years,global climate change and the problems it poses are becoming increasingly serious.Global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions,particularly from industrial development,is a major challenge to human well-being,compared to the role of natural factors.The regional industrial structure and the dynamic carbon effect,under the goals of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",have become important issues.Based on the China Business Enterprise Registration Database and the CEADs Carbon Emission Database,this paper systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and industry characteristics of regional carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2019 based on a dynamic evolutionary perspective.It also empirically analyzes the carbon emission effects of regional industrial dynamics,and further explores the regulatory mechanisms of cleanup and digital carbon reduction pathways.The main findings are as follows.Firstly,China′s carbon emissions have experienced three stages in time:steady growth,rapid growth and structural transformation.Spatially,the regional carbon emissions have obvious spatial differentiation,showing a pattern of high in the north and low in the south,concentrated in large and medium-sized cities,particularly in developed heavy industry areas and several major urbanization and industrialization agglomerations.Industry characteristics are strongly correlated with the number of firm entries and incumbents in high carbon emission industries.Secondly,different factor-intensive industries have heterogeneous carbon emission effects.The entry of capital-intensive and knowledgeintensive industries is beneficial for cities to reduce carbon emissions.Cities with comparative advantages in resource-intensive as well as labor-intensive industries may generate more carbon emissions.Specifically,the entrants of industries,such as coal mining and washing and metal products,have significant positive impacts on the growth of regional carbon emissions.Thirdly,government-driven cleaner production and digital transformation can reduce the carbon emission growth effect of industry dynamics,while the moderating effect is industry-heterogeneous.Specifically,cleaner production promotes the carbon-reducing effect of capital-intensive business entry and weakens the carbon-increasing effect of resource-intensive industry entry.Overall,the research results contribute to an in-depth analysis of the potential carbon emission peaking paths in China′s regions.And the results are of certain significance for the transformation and high-quality development of China′s regional industries under the national target.
作者 贺舒琪 穆恩怡 戴晓冕 盛涵天 贺灿飞 HE Shuqi;MU Enyi;DAI Xiaomian;SHENG Hantian;HE Canfei(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Beijing 100871,China)
出处 《地理研究》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期535-557,共23页 Geographical Research
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(42171169、41731278)。
关键词 碳排放 区域产业动态 产业结构 产业异质性 carbon emissions regional industrial dynamics industrial structure industrial heterogeneity
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